Opinion | Why the US and China are making nice – for now

Tumultuous US-China relations took a turn for the worse at the start of the year after the US air force shot down a Chinese balloon six nautical miles off the US east coast. China called it an “obvious overreaction”; the US called it an “unacceptable violation” of sovereignty. Few would have predicted a detente so soon, but this is exactly what has happened.

There was cautious optimism in May, after US President Joe Biden spoke of an imminent thaw in bilateral relations at the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, though many analysts remained unconvinced. This was understandable, given the thorny issues dogging US-China ties.

Since then, however, both countries have taken concrete steps to defuse tensions. In June, Antony Blinken went to China in what was the first visit by a US Secretary of State since 2018. Post-meeting statements on both sides conveyed a positive tone, acknowledging candid discussions and suggesting a willingness to maintain dialogue.

Subsequently, a flurry of meetings took place between senior officials. In September, US-China working groups were established to focus on economic and financial affairs, to facilitate discussions and conflict management. Last month, US delegates attended the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, raising hopes of a return to high-level military communication. US-sanctioned former Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu has fallen from grace and his successor could refresh relations.

Last week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum brought more hope as Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines. They agreed to restore US-China military-to-military dialogues. The two countries have also pledged to cooperate on narcotics, artificial intelligence and climate change.