Opinion | US-China diplomatic thaw raises hopes for military dialogue breakthrough

With the Indo-Pacific becoming a hotbed of contention, recent events have raised the possibility of a flashpoint developing into a military conflict between the US and China. The collisions between Chinese and Filipino vessels over the past weeks are of particular concern as America and the Philippines have a Mutual Defence Treaty that mandates the US to take military action to defend a Philippines under attack.

But this is not the only area with potential for escalation. There have also been many examples of US and Chinese military aircraft in close and dangerous proximity.

The probability of such instances leading to a conflict has been increased by the lack of communication between US and Chinese defence officials. Fortunately, things are starting to shift.

The breakdown in communication stems from former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year. In response, Beijing suspended its communication channels with US military commanders and defence policy coordinators. Attempts to re-establish top-level military communication have so far failed.

This breakdown was prominent at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore in June, a security summit that traditionally facilitated communication between high-level officials on Indo-Pacific security issues and enabled critical bilateral discussions.

Breaking with the norm, Li Shangfu, China’s defence minister at the time, and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin did not hold talks – a result of the sanctions the US had imposed on Li. Beijing blames Washington for the communication issues.