David Lampton

Opinion | Xi-Biden meeting alone won’t lift the deep strategic US-China mistrust

Divergence on four core strategic issues – China’s ambivalence to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel, and US containment of China and attitude around Taiwan – won’t be so easily bridged

Washington and Beijing have each defined the other as their principal, strategic long-term threat – that must change before relations can truly improve

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David Lampton

Published: 5:30am, 26 Oct 2023Updated: 6:09am, 26 Oct 2023

Without expectation, but with hope, I have watched for signs that recent exchanges between senior US and Chinese leaders would help stabilise the dangerous descent in Sino-American ties. But since 2021, each conversation between the two presidents or their subordinates has been followed by a further slide. Though Joe Biden and Xi Jinping getting together would be positive, it is hard to see things changing much.

Washington talks of “guardrails” for US-China relations; Beijing does not. The White House calls for competition and cooperation; Beijing says there will be no cooperation with Washington’s kind of competition. The US administration talks of “de-risking” supply chains and Xi talks of self-reliance. Washington talks about crisis management and risk reduction; Beijing believes only risky behaviour gets US attention.

Both sides talk about deterring the other, the core feature of deterrence being threat. Both sides search for allies and partners, with China moving closer to Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Both capitals talk about picking the low-hanging fruit of economic and cultural exchange, but there has been little progress. The war in Ukraine and intensifying conflict in the Middle East have greatly compounded strategic distrust.

America and China have come to deeply distrust each other on four core strategic issues – two are of concern to America and two to China. Until our capitals can sit down and adjust policies in these regards, and domestic politics in each society changes, talk of a different, more productive relationship is illusory, and the danger of conflict will mount.

For America, two areas of concern are foundational. The first is that China has seemingly abandoned its commitment to the sovereignty of borders recognised by the United Nations, a core principle former premier Zhou Enlai articulated in 1954. Sovereignty had heretofore been a constant refrain for China.