Opinion | As Russia, China and the US pursue hypersonic missiles, a global non-proliferation treaty is needed

Hypersonic missiles are hard to defend against and can alter the strategic balance and aggravate instabilities if they are allowed to proliferate

As the risks of miscalculation rise, there is probably less than a decade in which to act to prevent the spread of the technology

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Undated footage of the launch of China’s DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile is broadcast on China’s CCTV. The weapon is crucial in China’s strategy to counter perceived threats in the East and South China seas. Photo: CCTV

Published: 5:30am, 26 Sep 2023

In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on hypersonic missiles. Notably, the US, China and Russia are all pursuing hypersonic missile technology that can evade enemy air defences and strike well-protected targets. At the same time, there are concerns about the effectiveness of such missiles after Ukraine said it had shot down a barrage of Russia’s Kinzhal missiles.

While the Russian description of the Kinzhal as a hypersonic missile has been criticised as misleading, Sino-US rivalry has brought such weapons into the spotlight. And the pursuit of hypersonic weaponry highlights an urgent need for a global non-proliferation framework.

It is worth noting that the term “hypersonic” is often used misleadingly to imply a more advanced level of technology than is actually present in a weapon. Hypersonic speed is defined as five times the speed of sound – Mach 5 – or faster. But this is an inadequate description of hypersonic missiles, as ballistic missiles can also achieve hypersonic speeds on re-entry but have a predictable flight path.

True hypersonic missiles, however, are weapons that can manoeuvre and maintain these incredible speeds.

They can be classified into two categories. Hypersonic cruise missiles remain in the Earth’s atmosphere during flight and are powered by high-speed engines. Hypersonic glide vehicles leave the atmosphere to re-enter at speeds of up to Mach 27, making them much harder to detect and intercept.

Russia’s Kinzhal missiles do not fall into either category. While the missiles do reach speeds above Mach 5, they lack manoeuvrability. Experts have described the Kinzhal as a modified ballistic missile, and do not consider it a true hypersonic missile.

Opinion | As Russia, China and the US pursue hypersonic missiles, a global non-proliferation treaty is needed

Hypersonic missiles are hard to defend against and can alter the strategic balance and aggravate instabilities if they are allowed to proliferate As the risks of miscalculation rise, there is probably less than a decade in which to act to prevent the spread of the technology

Hypersonic missiles are hard to defend against and can alter the strategic balance and aggravate instabilities if they are allowed to proliferate

As the risks of miscalculation rise, there is probably less than a decade in which to act to prevent the spread of the technology