Opinion

How a submerged Spratlys reef is emerging as a South China Sea flashpoint for China, the Philippines and US

Pressure is building on the US to step in at the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal with the Chinese increasingly brazen and Manila increasingly indignant

By being ambiguous, the US seems to be counting on the Philippines not to escalate the situation or China to back down – increasing the risks of miscalculation

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Dr Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia.

Published: 1:00am, 21 Aug 2023

The stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at a China-Philippines disputed submerged reef in the South China Sea. On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon to prevent a Philippine government-chartered boat escorted by coastguard vessels from delivering supplies to troops on Second Thomas Shoal.

Relations were already rattled after a Chinese coastguard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coastguard vessel on a similar resupply mission in February. Although the latest incident is only part of a series of such military clashes between China and the Philippines, it stood out for its brazenness and the US response.

China’s egregious behaviour looked to be a message to the Philippines that it had gone too far in moving militarily closer to the US – and may have broken the back of the camel of restraint on all sides.