Opinion

In Ukraine’s war of attrition, can Kyiv depend on the West to supply the arms?

The West is struggling to keep up war supplies to Ukraine while Russia digs in and drags it out, knowing it has more ammunition

Without parity in military industrial output, supporting Ukraine means squandering Western military resources, with Ukraine ultimately becoming a burden

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A Ukrainian soldier pets a cat next to artillery shells at an undisclosed location in the Bakhmut direction, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, on May 23, amid the Russian invasion. Photo: EPA-EFE

Aswin Jia-Song Lin is a PhD candidate at the International Doctoral Programme in Asia-Pacific Studies (IDAS), at the National Chengchi University, Taipei.

Published: 8:53am, 24 Jul 2023

Ukraine is embroiled in a war of attrition against its Russian invaders that is reminiscent of the first world war. For the summer campaign, while Ukraine sent its soldiers to Nato countries for training, Moscow dug down, literally – constructing old-fashioned trenches and fortifications.

In a war of attrition, the most important factors are the numbers of soldiers and artillery. Right now, the ratio of Ukraine’s artillery to Russia’s is calculated as anything between 1:10 and 1:3, depending on where you look. In digging in, Russia’s tactical shift has made the pace of war sluggish. Despite reports of Russia also experiencing a shortage of ammunition, it still has far more of it than Ukraine.

This is an essential advantage for Russia – and a critical challenge for Ukraine. It simply lacks the quantity of weapons fundamental to winning a war of attrition. Essentially, Ukraine is caught up in a supply chain race against Russia. Ukraine is depleting its ammunition at an extraordinary pace while Russia has a much larger military industrial output.