Wagner mutiny shows China’s ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia is a risky bet

It is in Beijing’s interests to have Putin firmly in power, keeping Russia’s borders stable, fuel supplies to China safe and the West distracted

However, as the Wagner mutiny has pointed to the possibility of internal turmoil in Russia, China needs a Plan B

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A woman stands next to cardboard cutouts of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow on June 14. Photo: AFP

Emanuele Scimia

Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst.

Published: 12:30am, 30 Jun 2023

The aborted mutiny in Russia by the Wagner private mercenary group, led by its chief and financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, sent a clear signal to Chinese President Xi Jinping: China’s “no limits” partnership with a revisionist Russia under Vladimir Putin, devised by the two sides as a counterweight against the United States and its Western allies, is a risky bet.

The Ukraine war has been degrading Russia’s geopolitical, military and economic potential. As many observers expected, the reverberations of Putin’s military adventure are also being felt in Russia domestically. The armed offensive launched by Prigozhin, with his private troops coming as close as 200km of Moscow, showed that a civil war in Russia propelled by repeated Russian military setbacks in Ukraine is no longer implausible.

Marginalised by the West for its aggression in Ukraine, a Russia affected by internal instability and political infighting cannot play a significant international role. This is especially true of Moscow’s confrontation with the West, which is China’s primary focus in its engagement with the Kremlin.