As the US loses ground to China in Middle East, Israel needs to rethink its position

A state visit by Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to China has come when Chinese-led efforts to broker peace in the Middle East have changed the nature of a region that once was dominated by the US. Beijing has put forward a proposal for peace between Israel and Palestine, which calls for the restoration of the Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, increased development and humanitarian assistance to Palestine, and an end to provocative language or actions. The visit is part of a string of diplomatic efforts by China to engage the Arab world as Beijing seeks to fill the power vacuum left by the US. In recent years, Washington has appeared to find little or no strategic value in the Middle East, shifting its attention and resources to Eastern Europe to tackle Russia and to Southeast Asia to contain China. Since the storming of Beirut in 1958, the United States has remained an influential force in the region, focused on a transactional relationship with Gulf countries. This relationship involves providing security in exchange for a steady supply of crude oil, which has been a critical strategy for maintaining a US presence in the region while preventing Arab countries from launching attacks against Israel. Israel has been the primary beneficiary of this relationship, receiving significant US economic and military assistance. As a result, Israel has emerged as the strongest country in the region, with the ability to protect itself from threats posed by countries like Lebanon, Iran and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. But Israel now finds itself in a precarious position as it tries to redefine itself in the Middle East, despite the signing of the Abraham Accords brokered by the US. That establishment of Israel’s diplomatic relations with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco was underpinned by mutual opposition to Iran and a loss of interest in the Palestinian cause at government level among Arab states. But such progress now seems redundant, as Iran has returned to the fold. The reopening of Iran’s embassy in Saudi Arabia, in a Chinese-brokered deal, signals a new era in regional relations. While Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has made it clear he does not “ascribe to this zero-sum game” of having to choose between the US and China, he also said: “We are all capable of having multiple partnerships and multiple engagements and the US does the same in many instances”, in an apparent reference to Israel. The US appears to be struggling to read the situation in the Middle East and adjust its approach accordingly. Rather, it is sticking to the same playbook and prioritising Israel’s security and interests over those of the entire region, including Palestine. A recent example was when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential pro-Israel lobby, and promised that Washington was still prioritising normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia – a day before his visit to Riyadh. His trip to the kingdom wasn’t to prevent Saudi Arabia from cutting oil production, or to assure it that the US would ensure its security after ending American support for Saudi-led offensive operations in Yemen, or even to soothe relations so Saudi Arabia won’t sell oil in yuan, instead of US dollars. Will the dollar be dethroned by the yuan? Not in the near term Instead, the third-highest-ranking White House official had come at Israel’s bidding. But he left with nothing – because the region has finally decided to pursue peace due to the efforts led by China. This failure to accurately assess the new reality in the Middle East is causing the US to lose influence and relevance. Despite Washington’s best efforts to demonise China, Beijing’s attempts to foster peace make a pivot to the country seem like an increasingly appealing option. The US has overplayed its hand too many times, leaving a trust deficit with Gulf countries that are now looking to China for conflict settlement. Instead of remaining impartial and mediating between the two sides in the Middle East, the US has spurred bloc politics and put its own interests first. In the case of Israel and Palestine, it has had opportunities to resolve the conflict over the past 75 years, but has instead used Israel to extend its influence, such that a vicious cycle of US-backed regimes, colour revolutions and US-orchestrated invasions have stunted the growth of an oil-rich and strategically significant region. Israel has been the biggest beneficiary under the US-led world order, gaining unprecedented influence in the Middle East despite being a regional pariah. But its privileged position is due for a re-evaluation in today’s emerging multipolar world, where China’s role as a global peacemaker affords warring states win-win economic solutions that the US has yet to meet with counter-offers. Israel, too, understands that US influence in the Middle East is waning. Marking a change in banking philosophy, Israel’s central bank has added the Chinese yuan to the country’s US$206 billion reserves. The way forward for Israel does not have to end in a zero-sum game unless it continues to be guided by US foreign policy. Accepting the reality of Palestine, as Saudi Arabia has of Iran, is only going to ease Israel’s security concerns. If Israel continues to follow the US’ lead, it will lose out in the new world order. Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia