Opinion | US and the Philippines are playing a dangerous game in the South China Sea

Provocative actions over a contested atoll, the US stepping up threats over mutual defence, and planned joint naval patrols could push China to miscalculate

An incident like that in the Gulf of Tonkin – real or manufactured – which launched the US into the Vietnam war, may push an anti-China Congress to demand military action

Reading Time:4 minutes

Published: 1:30am, 31 May 2023Updated: 10:47am, 31 May 2023

On August 4, 1964, the US claimed that North Vietnamese patrol boats had attacked the US naval destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin. This led to the passage by the US Congress of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution less than a week later that became then-president Lyndon Johnson’s legal justification for sending US forces to South Vietnam. That led to the open involvement of the United States in Vietnam’s civil war.

We now know that the attack never happened and the fateful decisions were based on naval intelligence shaped to fit Johnson’s political needs and preferences. He was looking for an excuse to take the country to war without a formal declaration by Congress. That was then. But history has a way of repeating itself, especially if lessons go unlearned.

Could recent developments set the stage for an excuse for the US military to enter someone else’s conflict – this time, between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea? Such an incident could – like before – suck US allies Australia and South Korea into a wider fray.

A version of this scenario could develop at Second Thomas Shoal where the Chinese coastguard recently blocked a Philippine coastguard vessel from approaching the shoal. According to an international arbitration panel established under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the submerged shoal is part of the Philippine continental shelf and within its exclusive economic zone.

The Philippines, therefore, has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources. Technically, no country can claim sovereignty over a submerged feature. Nevertheless, the Philippines sees it as a sovereignty issue. China also claims it as part of its historic claim to much of the South China Sea that was rejected by the same panel. Thus, this dispute is coloured by nationalism, and inaction could threaten the legitimacy of both governments.

The blame for the recent near-collision is not as black and white as most Western media would have it. Beijing said the incident was a premeditated provocation by Manila. Yes, the resources belong to the Philippines and the Chinese vessel violated international convention by blocking the path of its Philippine counterpart.