Opinion

Why China’s pragmatic peace plan for the Ukraine conflict may also be the best

China is the only mediator able to offer real economic incentives to all parties to the conflict

A ceasefire that allows sanctions erosion to some extent would not only enable parties to start recovering economically, while saving face publicly, but also reduce disruption to global supply chains

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Dan Pototsky is a graduate of Zhejiang Gongshang University, a consulting adviser on markets and a junior research specialist at the Innovation Center for the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (RAS), in Moscow, Russia.

Published: 8:15am, 23 May 2023

As China actively promotes itself as a peace negotiator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, special envoy Li Hui began a tour of Russia, Ukraine, Poland, France and Germany last week. In a statement after his visit to Ukraine, he said there was “no panacea” to the crisis, but called on the parties to the conflict to “start with themselves” and “create conditions to stop the war and talk”.

While China’s provisions for peace, as spelled out in a 12-point blueprint, seem quite general, the initiative may have the best chance of success. China is the only mediator able to offer real economic incentives to all parties to the conflict.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions to economies and supply chains. The United States and the European Union both responded to the pandemic by increasing state debt, lowering interest rates and injecting liquidity into markets. But this means they will not have much of a safety buffer in the face of future disruption.

China, on the other hand, had a more measured economic response to the pandemic. Now that it has lifted its zero-Covid policy, its economy is recovering fast.