Advertisement
Opinion | Why nations seeking to hedge between US and China should look to Vietnam, not the Philippines
- Unlike its Southeast Asian neighbours, Manila has too eagerly embraced Washington and now appears to be back-pedalling to avoid retaliation from Beijing
- Vietnam, on the other hand, provides a textbook example of successful hedging, balancing relations with both superpowers, and Russia, without angering any of them
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
24
China and the United States are ratcheting up their pressure on Southeast Asian countries to choose between them in their struggle for regional hegemony. Some have already done so while others continue to hedge – some successfully, some not so much.
Advertisement
In international relations, hedging is defined as insurance-seeking behaviour in which a state tries not to take sides, pursues opposite, mutually counteracting measures, and cultivates a fallback position. However, states hedge in different forms and to different degrees for a variety of reasons. One major factor is the preferences of the elite class.
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar appear to have already chosen China. Thailand is a US treaty ally, but its recent actions suggest it might also lean towards China. The Thai government asked the US to remove all its combat forces in 1975, but it still allows the US to use the U-Tapao airbase and recently hosted a port visit by the US Nimitz carrier strike group.
Singapore is officially neutral between China and the US and tries to demonstrate that by undertaking military exercises with China to improve security in the strategic Malacca Strait. However, its defence cooperation with the US and hosting rotating US military forces suggest its leanings. This probably puts it in the US camp as far as China is concerned.
Singapore and Malaysia are members of the Five Power Defence Arrangements alongside Australia, New Zealand and Britain. Malaysia also hosts Australian units at its Butterworth airbase, but is nevertheless still trying to hedge between the superpowers. Indonesia has been able to maintain neutrality between the US and China, rejecting a 2020 US request to allow its surveillance planes to land and refuel there.
09:10
Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry
Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry
Meanwhile, the models for the best and worst approaches to hedging are Vietnam and the Philippines respectively.
Advertisement