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Emanuele Scimia

Cohabitation with China and the United States is proving increasingly complex for Europe, which is trying to learn from Southeast Asian nations the sophisticated art of surviving between the two great-power rivals.
The scheme is long-tested but risky: one must balance the interests of Beijing and Washington in a way that is acceptable to both. Singapore has a strong security partnership with the US, which can access the Lion City’s air and naval bases on a rotational basis. At the same time, Chinese warships conducted joint exercises with the Singaporean navy last week.
The same goes for the Philippines, which last month concluded the largest military drills in decades with the US, its long-time treaty ally. Manila also said in April it would establish more lines of communication with China to resolve maritime disputes.
During a three-day state visit to China by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in January, the two countries signed 14 bilateral agreements, with Chinese investors pledging to funnel some US$23 billion into the Philippines.
Singapore’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew used to say that China must be balanced and only the US can do it. It seems that France and Germany, the European Union’s political and economic engines, are taking a page from his geopolitical rule book.
On April 23, French drone manufacturer Cavok UAS signed a cooperation agreement with a Taiwanese counterpart for the joint development of an advanced surveillance drone. During a meeting with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, French Senate vice-president Alain Richard confirmed that a French warship recently sailed through the Taiwan Strait. Much like the US, France asserted that it had the right of freedom of navigation in the area, like every other country.

France is in damage control mode on Taiwan, trying to explain away President Emmanuel Macron’s comments during his China trip in early April. On his way back from China, Macron said the European Union should not be dragged into a crisis over Taiwan and must preserve its “strategic autonomy”. He later adjusted his message, emphasising that France’s policy towards Taiwan had not changed and that maintaining the status quo was the priority.
This foreign policy balancing is also reflected in French naval operations in Asia. The Jeanne d’Arc naval mission, which is on a five-month deployment around the world, took care not to navigate through the South China Sea during its recent time in Southeast Asia. This came after the French nuclear submarine SNA Emeraude travelled through the South China Sea in February 2021 in a challenge to China’s sweeping territorial claims.
As part of this tightrope exercise, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to resuscitate the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which the European Parliament failed to ratify after it was agreed in late 2020. That move was the EU’s response to Chinese sanctions on several European politicians who accused Beijing of repeated human rights violations.
What is the China-EU CAI and how is it different from a trade deal?
On the other hand, Germany is trying to reduce its export exposure to China and has not ruled out trade restrictions to safeguard its tech advantages. A security assessment by the German economy ministry is raising doubts about the acquisition of a minority stake in a terminal at the strategic Hamburg port by Chinese state-owned shipping company Cosco.
Meanwhile, the German state of Saxony is reportedly opening a representative office in Taiwan to develop cooperation on semiconductors. Germany is walking a fine line between China and the US, just like any other EU country wanting to preserve trade and investment relations with Beijing while seeking strategic cooperation with Taipei on chips.
While the new buzzword in EU institutions is “de-risking” rather than decoupling from China, Germany and France’s approach risks deepening the fracture between the European bloc’s countries with long-standing economic links to China and those in eastern Europe that are critical of Beijing’s support for Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.


All that said, a crisis in the Taiwan Strait would make Europe’s balancing efforts untenable. The EU’s priority for Taiwan is conserving the status quo. If Beijing were to launch a military operation on the island, though, it is highly likely that France, Germany and the rest of the EU would join the US in supporting Taiwan.
European countries would probably seek to minimise their contribution, focusing on economic penalties against Beijing, arms and aid supplies to Taipei and perhaps logistical support to the US military, rather than an all-out intervention. “Neutrality” is not on the table.
Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst


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Opinion

News

World

Europe

Trying to stay on the good side of two rival great powers is not easy as it requires balancing their interests in ways that are acceptable to them
As the likes of France and Germany are finding out, following the example of Singapore and the Philippines is more difficult than it looks


Trying to stay on the good side of two rival great powers is not easy as it requires balancing their interests in ways that are acceptable to them. As the likes of France and Germany are finding out, following the example of Singapore and the Philippines is more difficult than it looks.


China-EU relations

Diplomacy

Taiwan

South China Sea

United States

Singapore

The Philippines

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
