Akash SahuandTanvi Kaur

Opinion | Philippines is a study in how to balance between the US and China

In strengthening economic ties with China and expanding defence ties with the US while maintaining South China Sea claims, Manila shows the region how to actively balance, not passively hedge, relations with the great powers

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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is joined by Andres Centino, his armed forces chief of staff, and US army lieutenant colonel Timothy Lynch at a Balikatan briefing on April 26 in Zambales province, north of Manila, in the Philippines. Photo: EPA-EFE

Akash SahuandTanvi Kaur

Published: 8:15am, 4 May 2023

The Philippines and the United States have concluded their largest ever Balikatan exercise, with more than 17,000 troops taking part. On April 11, both countries also held their third 2+2 ministerial dialogue after a seven-year hiatus, committing to “modernising US-Philippines alliance cooperation” to strengthen “combined deterrence”. While a milestone for the relationship between these two traditional allies, the Balikatan exercise attracted objections from China, as expected.

The exercise is also an important reflection of regional geopolitics, reaffirming the Philippines’ independent strategic and foreign policy engagement. But does it reflect a fundamental altering of the region’s status quo? Probably not.

Although tensions are not unfamiliar to the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, an uptick can be of concern as great powers apparently no longer shy away from dancing around the red lines.

In such a scenario, it is natural for the Philippines to undertake military exercises with its close partners to boost its defence capabilities. Its decision to acquire defence assets from regional powers, such as India, can also be similarly justified, reflecting a diversification of its stakes.

The Philippines and China have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, with different maritime features – whether at high-tide or low-ride – giving rise to different legality claims under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which adds to the complexity of the issue.

The situation is worsened by misunderstandings and the exchange of politically charged statements. But given that granular disagreements over these maritime features can be resolved through dialogue, the Philippines is likely to lean towards a peaceful option to settle them, unless circumstances develop that it sees as a hostile threat to its sovereignty and security.