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Opinion | China and the Philippines must ensure the US and South China Sea issues don’t come between them
- The Philippines should neither target China in its security cooperation with the US nor continue to dwell on the South China Sea arbitration case
- Instead, Beijing and Manila should negotiate joint oil and gas development, and strengthen a crisis management mechanism between the countries
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It has become an important consensus between China and the Philippines that South China Sea issues “do not comprise the sum-total of relations between the two countries”. However, given the United States factor and the South China Sea situation, China-Philippines relations will still face many challenges.
First, ever-deepening US-Philippine security cooperation will be a main driver of militarisation in the South China Sea, with US deployments in the region including the growing number of forward bases, larger military exercises, and frequent close-in aerial reconnaissance of China.
Second, Asean’s centrality in the regional security architecture, founded on multilateralism, is being challenged by groupings built by non-resident forces, such as the US-led Quad alliance, Aukus and trilateral groupings featuring the US and Japan.
Third, the unilateral actions of some claimant countries in disputed waters will have a negative impact on the South China Sea and on bilateral relations. Some littoral states have conducted unilateral oil and gas exploration and development in overlapping areas, and carried out expansion on illegally occupied islands and reefs.
The past decade has seen ups and downs in China-Philippines ties. In the second half of 2016, bilateral relations got back on the right track. At the beginning of this year, Chinese and Filipino leaders stressed that the two countries would further strengthen the relationship of comprehensive strategic cooperation. However, in maintaining the steady development of China-Philippines relations, there are two disturbing factors to consider.
On April 3, the Philippine government announced the locations of the four new military bases it had agreed to make available for US forces in February; three of the camps are in Cagayan and Isabela provinces on Luzon in the northern Philippines, and one is on Balabac Island in the western province of Palawan, facing the South China Sea.
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