David Dodwell

Outside In | The world simply can’t afford the catastrophe of a mainland attack on Taiwan

As tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, analysts predict a global economic and political disaster in case of an attack, disrupting trade and ruining economies

The possibility of forced reunification remains slim for now but to make sure, moderate voices in the ears of Beijing and Washington are needed urgently

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Customers in a Beijing restaurant dine as a giant screen broadcasts news footage of an aircraft taking off from the Shandong aircraft carrier as part of “Joint Sword” exercises around Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army, on April 10. Photo: Reuters

David Dodwell

Published: 3:45pm, 21 Apr 2023

For more than three decades, I have engaged in public discussions and think-tank brainstorms on a prickly question: will Beijing attack Taiwan? The conclusions were the same: however fiercely Beijing huffs and puffs, the consequences would be so politically and economically catastrophic that China’s leaders would never take the risk.

One assumption underpinned this: that meticulous diplomatic exchanges between China and the United States can make clear Beijing’s “red lines” and enable well-linked US diplomats to signal to even the most hot-headed advocates of Taiwanese independence to pull back.

In declaring national reunification part of China’s grand rejuvenation, the core of his political agenda to be achieved by 2049, President Xi Jinping is seen to be setting a deadline for reunification. As anxieties surge afresh, especially with Beijing deploying steadily strengthening military forces in exercises around Taiwan, it is timely to ask whether the danger of an attack has risen.

The short answer is yes, though I strongly believe China does not intend to resort to force.

Xi’s so-called 2049 deadline for reunification has set an inflammatory stopwatch ticking. By linking reunification to national rejuvenation, potentially dangerous nationalistic forces have been unleashed. A steady expansion of China’s military capabilities around Taiwan and across the South China Sea has convinced US hawks that China has the ability and intention to reclaim Taiwan by force.

As a result, trust in that fundamental assumption of carefully moderated triangular diplomatic dialogue has evaporated, enabling misunderstandings, a lack of clarity over red lines and dangers that Taiwan’s pro-independence hothead minority may escape the leash – especially ahead of the island’s presidential elections next January.