Cost of war: Ukraine’s reconstruction bill is huge, but the world can afford it

Even if Putin cannot be made to pay the estimated US$411 billion rebuilding cost, Ukrainians can be moderately confident the world will ensure it is covered

Importantly, this is a sober reminder of the grim costs of war and the absolute imperative to avoid it

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People sit in a shelter in Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on January 19, after residents were left with no electricity, heating, water or gas. Photo: EPA-EFE

David Dodwell

David Dodwell is a journalist focused on Hong Kong and China since the 1970s.

Published: 1:00am, 10 Apr 2023

As world leaders fly around the world discussing whether or how to bring Russia’s war on Ukraine to an end, a World Bank report has brought us abruptly down to earth. It estimates that it will cost at least US$411 billion to rebuild the country – over twice the size of Ukraine’s war-damaged economy, 12 times more than its reserves and, for perspective, roughly equivalent to Hong Kong’s entire gross domestic product.

The Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment report, a collaboration between the World Bank, European Union, United Nations and Ukraine government, is a sober reminder of the grim costs of war and the absolute imperative to avoid it.

Of Ukraine’s 44 million people, an estimated 13.5 million have been displaced across the country or forced to flee abroad. Almost 10,000 civilians are dead. Its GDP has crashed by more than 29 per cent and exports have fallen by a similar rate. Household incomes estimated at US$61.5 billion have been lost, with about 7.1 million people pushed into poverty.