Opinion | A two-point plan for peace in Ukraine – while Kyiv still holds some leverage

As fighting rages on in Ukraine, a realistic settlement to the conflict is ripe for the plucking. The Ukrainians have proven to the world that with Western backing they are a fearsome opponent, driven by the hope of victory. But in military matters, as the saying goes, hope is not a method.

The Ukrainians are running out of ammunition, and Western countries’ manufacturing capabilities are struggling to keep up. Yes, they can continue to send what they do produce, but Russia has a head start as it began scaling up its military industrial manufacturing much earlier.

In the early days of the war, Ukraine backed away from a peace deal because, together with its Western backers, it hoped for better, without understanding the realities of war.

Ukraine is probably expecting Western countries to foot the bill not only during the war, but also of the reconstruction after the dust settles. However, Western aid is already failing to meet Ukraine’s needs, and the economies of its backers are worsening.

The longer the war drags on, the more reconstruction will be needed while the resources for that reconstruction will dwindle, and Western politicians, despite their promises, quite simply won’t be able to write the cheque Ukraine may be hoping for. Businesses and investors aren’t going to want to operate in a country of leaders who couldn’t see the writing on the wall and swallow their pride to make peace.