Opinion | US pivot to Asia allows China and Russia to build Middle East influence

China and Russia are growing their diplomatic and economic influence in the Middle East, making the most of space left behind by an absent US

This shift in the region’s geopolitical tenor and the China-brokered Saudi-Iran reconciliation could open the door to ending the war in Yemen and other conflicts

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A Yemeni man rides a motorcycle past the rubble of buildings destroyed by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Sana’a, Yemen, on March 14. The two warring parties, the Yemeni government and the Houthis, have been militarily and politically backed by Saudi Arabia and Iran since 2015. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 11:30pm, 1 Apr 2023

The balance of geopolitical power is shifting, and countries which want to either preserve or alter that equilibrium need the support of other nations. Saudi Arabia and Iran play an important role in this regard. These countries’ oil wealth and geostrategic importance give them the ability to help determine the global order.

China and Russia increasingly have room to move in the Middle East. This is a result of the United States shifting its attention to the Indo-Pacific, deteriorating US-Saudi relations, antagonism between the US and Iran, the Saudi-Iran reconciliation and US-China tensions.

The US is fostering closer ties with India, Southeast Asia and Pacific island nations in its effort to constrain China, which poses a challenge to its superpower status. Perceptions of the US attempting to impose its values on other nations have led some countries to broaden their search for new partners.

The Biden administration has changed US policies on arms sales and will not provide Saudi Arabia with offensive weaponry to help in its handling of the conflict in Yemen. The US currently only provides Saudi Arabia with defensive weapons.

In addition, Saudi Arabia is transitioning away from its reliance on oil as part of its Vision 2030 project, and at this point strengthening its ties with China and Russia is crucial.

Relations between China and Saudi Arabia have improved in recent years, particularly in military and technological cooperation. With the US refusing to provide Saudi Arabia with offensive weaponry, China has stepped in to meet this need, supplying Saudi Arabia with C-H4 drones to use in Yemen, for example. Beijing’s stated policy is to strengthen bilateral ties without interfering in another state’s internal affairs.