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US-China relations
OpinionComment
Paul Scharre
Paul Scharre

Opinion | US and China can show world leadership by safeguarding military AI

  • The US and China must start developing shared confidence-building measures to manage the risks of military AI competition
  • Most of these agreements can and should be multilateral – and US-China agreement would be a strong foundation to bring others on board

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Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe (right) shakes hands with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin on November 22 last year in Cambodia, in this photo captured from Twitter. There are many promising opportunities for US-China cooperation on reducing military AI risks. Photo: Twitter
Paul Scharre
The recent balloon incident highlights the fragility of US-China relations and the risk of accidents and miscalculation. While balloons are a 200-year-old technology, the United States and China are developing new technologies that come with new risks. Chief among these is artificial intelligence (AI), which has many military applications but also can lead to accidents or humans overtrusting in machines.
The hasty deployment by Microsoft and Google of chatbots like ChatGPT demonstrates the risks of moving too quickly with an unproven technology. Competitive pressures in the private sector have led tech companies to race ahead to field AI systems that are not safe. Nations must avoid similar temptations with military AI.

Unsafe military AI systems could cause accidents or give humans faulty information, exacerbating tensions in a crisis. China and the United States must develop confidence-building measures to reduce the destabilising risks of military artificial intelligence.

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Both American and Chinese defence thinkers have publicly acknowledged the risks of military AI competition and the need to explore avenues of cooperation. In a 2021 article, Li Chijiang, secretary general of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, warned of the “severe challenges that artificial intelligence military applications pose to international peace and security” and called for nations to “jointly seek solutions”.

In a 2020 New York Times article, People’s Liberation Army Senior Colonel Zhou Bo called for the US and China to adopt confidence-building measures, including in AI. Zhou cited the 1972 US-Soviet Incidents at Sea Agreement as inspiration.
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Zhu Qichao, a leading Chinese thinker on military AI, wrote in a 2019 article with Long Kun: “Both sides should clarify the strategic boundaries of AI weaponisation (such as whether AI should be used for nuclear weapons systems), prevent conflict escalation caused by military applications of AI systems, and explore significant issues such as how to ensure strategic stability in the era of AI.”

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