Opinion | From Taliban’s return to Hindutva’s spread, terrorism and extremism in South Asia have become more fragmented

While geopolitical developments and the Covid-19 pandemic pushed terrorism down South Asian countries’ priority list, its spread has continued

The Taliban’s return had a relatively limited impact, though the Pakistani Taliban kept up its insurgency and evidence emerged of Hindutva’s global presence

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Activists from India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) take part in a demonstration in Bhubaneshwar on December 17, 2022. BJP supporters set fire to an effigy of Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari during a protest against remarks he made about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a press conference at the United Nations. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:30pm, 7 Jan 2023

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US-China global rivalry and economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic have pushed terrorism down the priority list of several South Asian states. However, terrorism not only persisted in South Asia in 2022 but expanded and diversified, both ideologically and operationally.

Consequently, South Asia’s extremist trends in 2022 looked fragmented and complex. They benefited from existing sociopolitical fault lines, religious polarisation, shrinking space for dissent and civil liberties and states’ oppression of the media, often using counterterrorism laws as a weapon.

The year’s most telling trend was the declining salience of Afghanistan in South Asia’s extremist landscape. Historically, Afghanistan has been an agent of change in the region, from the Mongols’ invasion in the 13th century to the 1979 Russian military invasion that paved the way for the rise of jihadist proxy groups and the US-led global “war on terror”.

Aside from Pakistan, the Taliban’s return to power did not have a major effect on other South Asian countries.

Not only was the impact of the Taliban’s return limited and uneven across South Asia, it was largely intangible. It was confined to an outpouring of ideological sympathy for the Taliban on social media and a triumphant narrative of reliving the victory. However, no militant group in the region outside Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emulated the Taliban’s model of insurgency.

In 2022, radical ideologies in South Asia expanded from jihadist militancy to ethno-nationalist narratives of Hindutva extremism. Under the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, Hindutva as an ideology and its proponents have seen phenomenal growth in India.