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Climate change
OpinionComment
Muhamad Chatib Basri
Xue Lan
Muhamad Chatib BasriandXue Lan

Opinion | 1.5 degrees? We need to prepare for a temperature overshoot and worse climate change

  • With global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 looming, adaptation finance for poor nations is more urgent than ever
  • Planet-cooling research into carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering must also be accelerated

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Demonstrators pretend to resuscitate the Earth while advocating the survival of the 1.5 degree warming goal at the COP27 climate summit on November 16 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Photo: AP
Muhamad Chatib BasriandXue Lan
As the world’s population reaches 8 billion, the consequences of our environmental impact are visible and devastating, from melting glaciers to unprecedented heatwaves and floods. These are set to intensify, in frequency and severity – while countries continue to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to the latest mathematical models and reports from the United Nations and other expert organisations, however, the world is heading for an temperature increase that will overshoot 1.5 degrees, at least temporarily.

Currently, we are on track for an expected warming of 2.7 degrees by 2100 – quite simply, too little has been done to cut emissions. What is decided today as a response to global warming will define the climate our children and grandchildren live in.

We need to explore more approaches to minimise the impact of temperature overshoot and reduce its duration. While cutting emissions remains the highest priority, how else can societies adapt to climate impact? Could and should we consider cooling the earth? How do we capture the carbon dioxide released since the industrial revolution?

The first additional approach we need to explore is adaptation to a changed climate. It was high on the COP27 agenda, as negotiators debated gaps in the adaptation funding pivotal to climate-vulnerable low and middle-income countries.

The annual US$100 billion for climate action pledged at COP15 is far from being delivered. But even this would be insufficient. “International adaptation finance flows to developing countries are 5-10 times below estimated needs and the gap is widening,” said the UN.
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