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Macroscope | West and global institutions must adapt to developing world’s rise and learn their ways

  • The world’s leading emerging markets have amassed considerable economic power which will translate into geopolitical power in the near future
  • Their emergence will ripple through politics and economics into business and education as the world is increasingly less dominated by the West

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World Trade Organization director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (left) of Nigeria arrives at the WTO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 1. Okonjo-Iweala took the reins of the WTO amid hope she will infuse the beleaguered body with fresh momentum to address towering challenges, a lack of representation for the developing world and a pandemic-fuelled global economic crisis. Photo: EPA-EFE

Do not underestimate the impact of China and other developing countries on trade and investment flows. A group of nine major emerging markets which I call the NEP-9 (new economic powers) – China, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and South Korea – have amassed considerable economic power which will translate into geopolitical power in the near future.

These countries are among the largest global exporters and importers. They are also important investors through which unknown companies have the chance to gain visibility and success in Western markets.

Discussions within multilateral organisations such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund reflect the growing importance of the NEP-9. Power dynamics are changing as the economic dominance of Western nations and Japan has diminished. The NEP-9 no longer see their role on the international stage as falling under the thumb of rules set by the West but instead as makers and shapers of the new world order.

This does not mean the economic power of Western countries is destined to stagnate, as some might fear. However, it does imply the growth of NEP-9 countries is more significant and will remain so for at least the next 20 to 30 years.

Predictions of the world in 2040 or 2050 being dominated by today’s largest emerging markets rely on the assumption that these countries will experience consistent political and international stability. This is far from a certainty, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions demonstrate.
Still, Western nations must not underestimate the speed and efficacy of change in the NEP-9 economies. Although some such as South Korea started to implement the necessary transitions to grow their markets as early as the 1960s, it is only since the 1990s that emerging markets began catching up to those in the West more broadly.
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