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China economy
Opinion
Tianlei Huang
Nicolas Véron
Tianlei HuangandNicolas Véron

Opinion | Xi’s plan for China’s economy leaves private firms facing an uncertain future

  • After enjoying astonishing growth over the past decade, China’s private sector has recently gone into reverse, keeping global investors away
  • Whether this is a short-term blip following the government’s regulatory crackdown, or something more intrinsic, remains to be seen

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President Xi Jinping meets the media following the 20th party congress in Beijing on October 23. Photo: Reuters
At the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, President Xi Jinping showed little or no apparent intention of furthering economic reforms and sent reformers into the backwaters or retirement. The global investor community reacted by selling Chinese shares in bulk.
This new development extends a period of stock market misery that started in the summer of 2021 with Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on platform companies, and gained further momentum with the vagaries of an unsound property sector and unduly harsh enforcement of zero-Covid policies.
Global investors have reasons to be concerned. Xi’s first decade in power has been paradoxical. On the one hand, he tightened state control over the economy and often proclaimed his preference for “stronger, better and bigger” state-owned enterprises (SOEs) but refrained from serious SOE reform, dragging down growth.
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On the other hand, the private sector has made striking inroads into the Chinese economy over the past decade, thanks to Chinese entrepreneurs’ and workers’ impressive dynamism. We may now be at a turning point, when the former dynamic becomes dominant. But it’s still too early to be sure.

To have a clearer view of structural trends in the Chinese corporate landscape, we conducted an in-depth analysis of mainland China’s largest companies since Xi was chosen as China’s leader in late 2010.

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What we found was a near-continuous increase in private-sector shares of, first, the revenue of China’s largest companies that made the Fortune Global 500 rankings and, second, the market value of the 100 most valuable Chinese listed companies, up until the end of 2020.

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