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Opinion | Why China must stop Russia from using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine

  • Beijing has begun to diplomatically distance itself from Moscow, but this is not enough to prevent further damage to China’s international standing
  • Given Putin’s track record of giving effect to his threats, Xi must act in China’s national interest and intervene to defuse the nuclear threat

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on September 16. Photo: AP
As Xi Jinping emerges emboldened from China’s 20th party congress and prepares to possibly meet Joe Biden next month for the first time since he became US president, all eyes will focus on the two countries’ worsening geopolitical relationship over Taiwan.
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This will include whether they will now seek some sort of formula to stabilise (if not normalise) their relationship, or whether it will continue to spiral downwards in the absence of an effective diplomatic mechanism to manage the growing structural divisions between them.

But while Taiwan and the gathering pace of a wider economic and technological US-China decoupling will be front and centre, there is one even bigger, and more immediate, geopolitical wild card looming before them: the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Putting aside the humanitarian consequences this would bring, and the dangerous spiral of escalation it could spur, if Putin actually deployed nuclear weapons, it would irretrievably damage China’s own national interests and future standing in the world.

Among the Chinese foreign and security policy elite, it is generally agreed that Xi went too far in his joint statement during Putin’s February visit that the China-Russia strategic partnership now enjoys “no limits”.
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And while Chinese diplomats privately insist that they had no prior knowledge of Russia’s decision to violate the UN Charter by invading Ukraine and that Xi has personally encouraged Putin to seek a negotiated settlement, given the depth and duration of the Xi-Putin personal and political relationship, this is not accepted across the wider international community.

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