Opinion | Iran is rocked by Mahsa Amini protests, but a second revolution is not yet on the cards

The scenes across Iran should be no surprise after years of economic mismanagement, state brutality and heavy spending that fails to benefit the public

The revolt seems to be spreading as workers walk off the job in solidarity, but the loyalty of state security forces will shape the future of the protests

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Iranian people hold pictures of Mahsa Amini with their hands painted in red during a protest outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 2:30am, 15 Oct 2022Updated: 4:30am, 15 Oct 2022

This time could be different. Iranians have protested before – in 2009, large numbers rose up after an election widely seen as rigged – but not since the 1979 Islamic Revolution have scenes like the recent ones been seen across Iran. More than three weeks into the current protests, it is becoming clear that truly historic events are unfolding. But the Iranian regime is not done yet – it is still too early to know if this will be a true second revolution.

These protests should come as no surprise, though. In recent years, Iran has been hit by crisis after crisis following decades of mismanagement and brutality from the Islamic Republic’s leaders.

When Covid-19 hit, Iran’s initial response was inaction and complacency. The result is the highest Covid-19 death toll in the Middle East.

The regime spending heavily to fund its theological and ideological obsessions – arming Shiite militias in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, as well as pushing ahead with a controversial nuclear programme – has created a double whammy of external isolation together with domestic economic collapse.

The numbers are damning. The cost of goods and services has increased more than 1,100 per cent in the past 10 years, with staples such as cooking oil almost 4,000 per cent higher and dairy prices more than 2,000 per cent higher. Iran’s currency, the rial, has collapsed, today just 10 per cent of its value a decade ago.

So many people tried to mine cryptocurrency to generate non-rial revenue that it caused major power shortages and blackouts, bringing a government ban on bitcoin mining in May 2021. Key to understanding the current protests is that youth unemployment is almost 30 per cent, with nearly a quarter of all female university graduates unable to find work.

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