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Opinion | Great power rivalry means Ukraine crisis is unlikely to end soon
- The tenuous post-Cold War order appears to have fully given way to a new era, with Ukraine becoming an outlet for the accumulated acrimony between the rival great powers
- Neither Ukraine nor Russia appear likely to back down, and none of their backers show signs of ending their support
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The Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to have transformed from what looked like a local confrontation into something more perilous for global security. The stakes have ramped up, with Ukraine going on a counteroffensive in September and reclaiming swathes of territory which used to be controlled by the Russian military.
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Moscow has also significantly scaled up its rhetoric and action by drafting more troops and vowing to utilise all tools at its disposal to defend its “territorial integrity”, which some might interpret as a warning it could use its nuclear arsenal as a last resort. The recent blast on the Kerch bridge linking the Russian mainland with Crimea, which caused partial destruction in several sections, was celebrated in Ukraine as well as some European states.
The United States recently promised another tranche of military assistance to Ukraine worth about US$625 million, including HIMARS rocket systems, artillery ammunition and armoured vehicles. The European Union followed suit on October 3 by approving €5 billion (US$4.9 billion) in long-term loans, the second part of a €9 billion package announced in May.
The US also sent US$600 million in security assistance last month. Washington’s overall commitment to Ukraine since the conflict began in February has reached US$16.8 billion. The internalisation of the conflict is also signified by US plans to channel an additional US$2 billion in military aid to Nato countries.
The announcements came on the heels of the Russia-backed referendums in four regions of eastern Ukraine which declared independence and were incorporated into Russia. The referendums happened amid harsh criticism from Ukraine and its Western allies, who denounced the act.
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China, India and Brazil abstained from a UN Security Council vote on a US resolution condemning the referendums. New Delhi and Beijing have been criticised for not condemning Russia or even showing signs of siding with Moscow.
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