Opinion | Why China hesitates to invest in Afghanistan or recognise the Taliban

More than a year has passed since the Taliban took over Kabul. No country has formally recognised the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the government, including China. And Afghanistan’s relationship with its neighbours, such as Tajikistan and Pakistan, remains problematic.

Despite domestic enthusiasm and foreign speculation a year ago about Afghanistan’s strategic utility and commercial value for China, Beijing has remained extremely cautious in its engagement. Diplomatic recognition and major economic investment are unlikely to transpire soon. The issue of Uygur militants and the uncertainty of Afghanistan’s future remain the biggest hurdles.

When the Taliban took over Kabul in August last year, China’s top concern was the potential outflow of Afghan refugees and militants. Although they were unlikely to make their way to China directly, given the difficult terrain of the Wakhan Corridor, the fear was that they would flee to Tajikistan first and transit to China.

To prepare itself, China increased its security help to and cooperation with Tajikistan, including presumably at the joint military facility China reportedly maintains in Gorno-Badakhshan, which borders Xinjiang.

But terrorist threats through Tajikistan did not really transpire. Instead, it is in Pakistan that China has witnessed growing attacks against its nationals. Last month, a Chinese man was gunned down at a dental clinic in Karachi; last April, a suicide bombing killed three Chinese teachers at the Karachi Confucius Institute.