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US-China relations
Opinion
Yun Sun

Opinion | Major crisis averted in the Taiwan Strait – this time. But what happens next?

  • Time will tell what the real impact is of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which has earned her points at home but also allowed Beijing to ramp up military exercises near the island
  • Importantly, Beijing’s show of force sets a precedent to counterbalance Taiwan’s pursuit of foreign support and will be repeated in the years to come

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A People’s Liberation Army soldier looks on during military exercises in and over waters around Taiwan on August 5. A Taiwan frigate is seen in the background. Photo: Xinhua via AP
Despite the severe sabre-rattling by the Chinese media and interlocutors before US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Beijing’s reaction has been more moderate than its early threats suggested.
People can debate the extent to which the Chinese military exercises have changed the status quo on the ground. However, the US and China have been able to avoid a high-intensity, high-stakes military confrontation this time. And that should leave the world much to ponder.
Since reports in April of Pelosi’s potential trip, Beijing has left no stone unturned in conveying to Washington the potential consequences of the visit, including a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, consisting of military exercises, and potential missile firings over the island.
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On the US side, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly informed his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi about the possible trip during their meeting in Indonesia in July. In this sense, communications between the two countries about the trip appear to have been unobstructed.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shake hands during a meeting in Bali on July 9. Photo: AP
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shake hands during a meeting in Bali on July 9. Photo: AP
There is no doubt that Pelosi’s actions were controversial, to say the least. Many said the trip was not a good idea. Some suggested she could postpone it until the autumn, when it would have been much less sensitive given the political cycles in both the US and China.
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