Richard Harris

The View | Dynamic change may be in the past for an ageing Hong Kong amid greater mainland integration

Hong Kong is inevitably taking on mainland characteristics as a sovereign part of China, but we have a unique skill set that will serve us well

The city might be diminished as a global financial hub, but that does not threaten its future as a commercial metropolis and a hub of finance and investment

Reading Time:3 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

People walk past Hong Kong and China flags, hung to mark the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, in Central on June 28. Photo: AFP

Richard Harris

Published: 11:30am, 30 Jun 2022

When people ask me whether Hong Kong has changed since 1997, I say, “Yes, but it changed just as much in the 25 years before that.” The city has changed more than most places on the planet, but eventually we all get old. The next 25 years look to be less exciting as we move towards old age.

Hong Kong’s population stood at about 3.9 million in 1972, 6.3 million in 1997 and is 7.6 million today. Estimates suggest the city will be home to about 8.1 million people by 2047 – that is an extrapolation, of course, but it does indicate that things are slowing. Our population has doubled, but Hong Kong is getting older.

The 10-14 age group had the largest number of citizens in 1972. By 1997, they had grown up, and the 35-39 age group was the largest. Today, that accolade goes to the 60-64 group (and with just under 20 per cent aged 65 and over). The 60-64 age group is also expected to be the largest by 2047, but with a startling one-third of the population aged 65 and over.

The numbers reflect rapid immigration in the 1970s and 1980s, the emigration of young working men between 1997 and 2022 and the city’s 400,000 foreign domestic workers. There were almost 650,000 more women than men in Hong Kong in 2020. This is unusual by world standards, where the differential usually only widens as male mortality creeps ahead past 60.

Hong Kong has undergone dramatic changes, with each decade displaying its own character. The 1970s were sedate and colonial. The 1980s were a period of incredible postcolonial growth as Britain sought to hand over the administration and simply made the place work.

The 1990s were uncertain, both successful and volatile. The 2000s were a decade of blue-sky ambition. In the 2010s, the sense was that the Chinese economy would be the boss but we would ride calmly on its coattails.