Why US-China relations will only get worse, no matter who is in the White House

There are many who still cling to an illusion about the future prospects of US-China relations. They believe that, with some positive factors, both countries could get back to harmonious relations. This group includes many entrepreneurs and people with a long history of cooperation with China. There are those who have academic or technological partnerships, as well as those with financial investment relationships. There are also many from one country with family ties to the other through marriages and children. All these people look forward to the normalisation – or rather the “re-normalisation” – of US-China relations. “Normalisation” of US-China relations was once a buzzword, before China’s reform and opening up. In 1972, US president Richard Nixon visited Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai, met Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai and signed the Shanghai Communique. In the communique, both countries pledged to pursue full normalisation of diplomatic relations. This was achieved after relations had been frozen for 23 years. So it is understandable that many wish to see relations normalised again. The question is whether this is possible. The answer is simple. If the relationship cannot get back to normal under the administration of US President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, then it will not happen in the future. There are two reasons for this. China has maintained good relations with the United States for a long time and is more willing to deal with the Democratic Party. When Biden took office, many in China believed relations would improve. Unfortunately, because of the governance system and constraints of the US Congress, Biden has been unable to make major adjustments. All he can do is ensure the relationship does not further deteriorate from that of Donald Trump’s presidency, but that is as far as it goes. Therefore, China’s expectations of this administration have been lowered to almost zero and the coldness between the two sides remains. On the US side, the process of decoupling has continued, for various reasons including the strength and rise of China’s economy, increasing competitiveness, the contest for international influence, and Beijing’s desire for an international order that is more favourable to China. Other areas of concern for the US include the Hong Kong protests, democracy and human rights, Taiwan, and China-Russia relations. Therefore, to the US, China has changed from being a collaborator to a competitor. US does not want ‘trade divorce’ from China, Washington seeks reform This will remain the case even if there is a change of ruling party in the US, not because of any individual leader but because of geopolitical competition in the international order. Behind this are numerous issues, including currencies, exchange rates, armaments, alliances and regional stability. None can be changed easily. The Biden administration does offer a window of opportunity. If change doesn’t happen, it will be even less likely that the next US administration, whether Democratic or Republican, can accomplish anything of substance. The replacement of the Trump administration with Biden and his team provided a major opportunity for a fix. It is true that Biden has changed a number of Trump’s policies, including on immigration, transatlantic partnerships and global climate issues. That said, Biden has done little to fix or adjust the US-China relationship. Could China take the initiative to promote the normalisation of relations in the future? This possibility is also rather slim. Although China’s economic growth is to a large extent dependent on net exports, which are very much linked to the US market, there are certain limitations to its growth potential. With China’s growth rate declining year on year, gradually falling back from the double-digit rates of the past and now fluctuating around 5 per cent, the economic element in political achievements is becoming less relevant. The only thing that can replace economic achievements in the political structure is stronger nationalist sentiments. This, of course, is not a driving factor for normalisation. When the economy is important, the US-China relationship matters and is a positive bargaining chip. Conversely, in a period when the economy is less important, the relationship will not matter as much. China is at a critical stage and this adjustment of Chinese society means it will be almost impossible to normalise relations again. Therefore, we should be under no illusion: US-China relations are likely to continue to deteriorate over the long term. Chen Gong is the founder of Anbound, an independent think tank, and author