Opinion | Could the Ukraine crisis lead to better relations between China and the West?

Name: ‘We will not stand by’: Nato heads of state meet to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Uploaded: 2022-04-03T17:30:27.000Z
Duration: 3 min 51 s
Description: ‘We will not stand by’: Nato heads of state meet to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

If the US and Europe want China to become a responsible stakeholder, they need to drop the threats and offer inducements, such as a revival of bilateral investment talks

Dispelling the notion of US containment would also improve public sentiment in both China and the United States, paving the way to improved ties

Reading Time:4 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Yukon Huang

Published: 1:30am, 4 Apr 2022

Both the United States and Europe are stepping up pressure on Beijing to support their blockade of Russia. Implicit in these messages is that China could also become a sanctions target or be ostracised if it did not support the Western alliance.

Beijing’s intention is to refrain from triggering retaliatory actions but not to step back from its special partnership with Russia. Its leadership argues that maintaining neutrality gives it more credibility as a possible mediator. This would put China in the same group as India and South Africa, which also abstained from the UN resolution condemning Russia on March 24.

Some in Beijing see the possibility of China coming out of this politically stronger. Russia would end up becoming more dependent on China. Beijing’s relations with the US might remain largely intact and its links with Europe strengthened as the latter seeks alternative markets.

There is also a possibility, however far-fetched, that a more fundamental and favourable shift in China relations with the West could result.

China’s reluctance to criticise Russia comes from seeing Nato’s looming presence in Europe as similar to America’s increasingly antagonistic posture in Asia. If the West wants to persuade Beijing to become what then US deputy secretary of state Robert Zoellick referred to in 2005 as a “responsible global stakeholder”, it needs to offer Beijing inducements, not threats.

03:51

‘We will not stand by’: Nato heads of state meet to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

That inducement needs to counteract the narrative that China is also a target of US-led pressures – symbolised by the Aukus security pact and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). This view of China in the crosshairs is reinforced by Washington’s instinct to threaten Beijing.