Zhai KunandXiong Lan

Opinion | Asia-Pacific must buck global trend towards increased security and focus on economic cooperation and development

Great power conflict and global economic uncertainty are driving a shift from cooperation to defence in the Asia-Pacific, holding back the region’s development

Rather than focusing on competition, major powers like the US must look for common ground in their regional aims, while giving smaller players greater autonomy

Reading Time:4 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Zhai KunandXiong Lan

Published: 9:15am, 29 Mar 2022

During the years from the rise of East Asian cooperation in 1997 to the formation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, development and security in the Asia-Pacific were relatively well coordinated. Although competition existed, interstate cooperation was central to the development of the region.

However, in the present period, the contradiction between development and security is intensifying. Finding a way out of this dilemma is critical for the future economic development of the Asia-Pacific.

Cooperation has been deteriorating in three ways. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further strategised and politicised economic development in the region. According to the OECD, the conflict may reduce global economic growth by more than 1 percentage point and increase inflation by 2.5 percentage points this year.

This huge uncertainty presents a major hurdle to economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. After the US and the West imposed sanctions on Russia, many Southeast Asian countries, and India and China, worry that the US and the West may impose secondary sanctions on them.

Therefore, the willingness of these countries to cooperate economically will decrease, especially with the US itself.

Second, various mechanisms for economic cooperation in the region are in trouble. The Belt and Road Initiative, for example, faces being “blocked at both ends and collapsing in the middle”; the “ends” – Europe and the Asia-Pacific – are blocked by the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy, while the “middle” – the Eurasian region from Kazakhstan to Ukraine – has begun to collapse.