Why a military offensive against Ukraine was always Russia’s Plan B

To stop Nato’s eastward expansion, Putin has been prepared to risk international condemnation and possible domestic repercussions

His rationale of the need to protect the country’s security also has the support of a sizeable number of the Russian people

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Danil Bochkov

Danil Bochkov is an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

Published: 1:00am, 26 Feb 2022Updated: 1:53pm, 9 Mar 2022

February 25 is likely to usher in a change in the post-1945 world order, with national security being prioritised over sovereign rights and non-interference. Despite earlier reassurances of non-aggression, Moscow launched an offensive against Ukraine, citing domestic security concerns.

The move was lambasted internationally with the Group of 7 calling it an “unprovoked and completely unjustified attack” and the European Union concerned about “the darkest hours” since World War II. There will be broader implications for Euro-Atlantic security and the global order will be more unbalanced, emboldening states to pursue coercion.

But there is nothing sudden about Russia’s move. Earlier in the week, I tweeted that “Russia will have to intervene militarily sooner or later”, following its recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, which effectively dismantled any diplomatic off-ramps for Ukraine to peacefully withdraw.

Prior to that, the Russian parliament voted to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise the regions. It was followed by the two regions’ announcements of mass evacuations of civilians.