Opinion

Caught between the US and Russia, Ukraine’s only hope is to become neutral

Name: Ukrainians train in self-defence in face of Russian threat as Western leaders try to defuse crisis
Uploaded: 2022-02-09T17:30:21.000Z
Duration: 3 min 18 s
Description: Ukrainians train in self-defence in face of Russian threat as Western leaders try to defuse crisis

While the US insists Ukraine is free to join Nato, Russia claims cultural ties with Ukraine and sees the eastern expansion of the alliance as a challenge to its security

With the threat of a Russian invasion mounting, the best hope for Ukraine’s future peace is to become a neutral state like Switzerland

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A Ukrainian guard patrols the border with Russia in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on February 2. Fears of a Russian invasion are growing as President Vladimir Putin accuses the US and its allies of threatening Russia’s security by refusing to ban Ukraine from joining Nato. Photo: AP

Victor Gao

Victor Gao, former interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, is chairman of the China Energy Security Institute and vice-president of the Centre for China and Globalisation.

Published: 1:30am, 10 Feb 2022Updated: 2:40am, 10 Feb 2022

The Ukraine crisis has degenerated into a melodrama with potentially devastating global geopolitical consequences. Ukraine wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) as a safe bet against any potential Russian aggression.

The United States and Nato insist that the organisation’s expansion is not subject to any country’s veto, and seem eager for Ukraine to join. Russia sees the continued expansion of Nato, especially into Ukraine, as a direct challenge to its security and has vowed to ensure Ukraine never joins the group.

While US President Joe Biden has sent 3,000 US troops to several front-line Nato member states in eastern Europe, he maintains that the US will not send troops to Ukraine to fight against a Russian invasion, instead promising tough sanctions, including personal sanctions against President Vladimir Putin, should Moscow invade.

At the same time, political figures in Ukraine are accusing the US and other Western countries of being weak in the face of Russian aggression, and are calling for swift pre-emptive sanctions before an invasion occurs.

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Ukrainians train in self-defence in face of Russian threat as Western leaders try to defuse crisis

Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, the geopolitical entanglement between Russia, the US and other Nato member states has never brought its key players as close to the brink of war as now, and the world is holding its breath as it awaits their next moves, with catastrophe seemingly all but inevitable.

To pre-empt such a disaster, realism and pragmatism are sorely needed.

As the US and other Nato members states continue to insist that Ukraine has full sovereign right to apply to join the organisation, they might be reminded of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

Back then, when the then Soviet Union and Cuba – both full sovereign countries – wanted to base Soviet missiles in Cuba, Washington objected so strongly that not even the prospect of a nuclear war could deter it from imposing a naval embargo to prevent further Soviet missiles from arriving in Cuba.