Gal Luft

Opinion | Why China has reason to wish for a Trump presidency in 2024

Trump’s grip on the Republican Party makes his return to the White House a not-so-far-fetched possibility

While we could expect China hawks to dominate his team in any comeback, his disdain for allies and military adventures, and penchant for deal-making, will chime with a Beijing hoping to cool tensions

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Gal Luft

Published: 1:30am, 8 Jan 2022Updated: 3:15am, 8 Jan 2022

When Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol a year ago, it was hard to imagine him ever returning to the White House. But with under three years left before the 2024 US presidential election and with Joe Biden and Trump running neck-and-neck in the polls, it is time to ponder the implications of such a scenario, especially for US-China relations.

If Trump were to run and win, he would be limited by the constitution to one term. Not having to seek re-election would free him from the political pressures typically haunting first-term presidents. This could also make him even more unconventional than he was in his first term.

In addition, he would be likely to enjoy Republican control of either one or both chambers of Congress, which would give him more power than he had when he left office. When Trump was elected in 2016, Republicans controlled both the Senate and the House but large swathes of the party rejected him.

Since then, he has gradually taken over the party and marginalised establishment Republicans. By 2024, the GOP will be solidly behind him. As second-term president, he would have more political power than he has ever had.

People gather ahead of an appearance by former president Donald Trump at a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa, on October 9 last year. In a Morning Consult/Politico poll last December, more voters said they’d like to see Trump run in 2024 than incumbent Joe Biden. Photo: AP

By January 2025, the pandemic may be under control but the fallout of years of economic carnage, bloated national debt and biting inflation will be felt everywhere. Trump would run on the promise of returning the economic miracle of his first term – “Make America Great Again, Again” – restoring law and order and undoing Biden’s progressive policies.