Aukus submarine deal shows a worrying shift in Australia’s foreign policy

Defence was once an arm of diplomacy but foreign policy is now seen as an arm of defence, which colours all thinking around foreign engagement with Asean

The deal will significantly affect Australia’s ability to shape regional discussions, particularly on trade

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Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison (right) attends a joint press conference on the Aukus security partnership via video link with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (left) and US President Joe Biden, from Parliament House in Canberra on September 16. Photo: EPA-EFE

Daryl Guppy

Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert.

Published: 9:15am, 19 Oct 2021Updated: 9:19am, 19 Oct 2021

Many a joke-telling session starts with: “Have you heard the one about…?” The latest in Asean is “the one about Aukus”.

The punch line is: “2040”, because that’s when it’s estimated Australia will actually acquire the proposed nuclear-powered submarines with help from either the United States or Britain, under the new security alliance announced between the three nations. In other words, the strategic impact will be greatly diminished by the timeline.

However, jokes and the lengthy delays aside, the Aukus announcement shows an intent to return to an old governance order that sits uncomfortably with many countries in the Asean region.

Aukus is a product of Australia’s desire to go back to a Western-dominated security environment in Asia. Aukus alliance partners and their supporters are trapped in their own historical bubble. Many of these Western and Japanese policymakers talk and listen only to those who already agree with their view of the world. Thus, the Aukus announcement is a shout in this echo chamber.