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Opinion | Why China is right to stick to its zero-Covid strategy, amid the Delta variant surge

  • With a different approach, it might be almost impossible to keep the caseload from overwhelming China’s medical system
  • Case numbers are rising rapidly elsewhere, even in populations with high vaccination rates, and such a scenario would just be too costly for China

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Illustration: Stephen Case

A new wave of Covid-19 cases is threatening lives in every corner of the world, including China, a country largely immune to previous waves of the pandemic.

Given the higher transmission rates of the Covid-19 mutations and possible lower efficacies of developed vaccines, herd immunity may not be achievable. The R0, or number of people one sick person will infect, for the Delta variant has reached five or higher; this means at least 80 per cent of the entire population needs to be immune to the Delta variant to achieve herd immunity.

However, according to studies, vaccines available at the moment might be less than 80 per cent effective against the variant. Therefore, even if everyone is vaccinated, Delta may continue to wreak havoc.

This year, the number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths have reached new heights worldwide, far exceeding those for last year.

Comparing the numbers for the past four weeks with those for the same period last year in countries and regions with higher vaccination rates (including the United Arab Emirates, Chile, Israel, Britain, Europe and the United States), only Chile had lower case and death numbers this year.

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Delta variant drives Covid-19 surge in southern US as unvaccinated are urged to get shots

Delta variant drives Covid-19 surge in southern US as unvaccinated are urged to get shots

In contrast, Britain and Europe saw numbers soar this year. Clearly, vaccines do not necessarily provide a perfect shield.

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