Why China’s governance model will be exported – whether Beijing likes it or not

Time and again, predictions of the Communist Party’s impending doom have come to nothing as its form of political governance has not only endured but thrived. The party has created a system that has rewritten China’s economic and social record in a short period of time. While success of this formula is unique to China, it will not remain within China alone. The allure of its mode of political governance will be akin to the gravitational pull towards Chinese trade – whether Beijing likes it or not. China’s road to economic dominance has not been a linear process. Modern China began in 1949 as an agrarian economy, changing course in 1978 to embrace market reforms and adjusting again in 2012 as President Xi Jinping took office and introduced grand strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative. During this period, China has amplified its aggressive posture against Western criticism while being steadfast in its foreign policy. Greater economic reforms on the domestic front suggest market liberalisation will further increase, as well as show the party’s confidence in the market’s autonomy. This success has come about through many factors, some unique to China but most common to many nations. What China has shown is that the fundamentals of its strategy have universal applicability, with a clear focus on what it wants to achieve, diagnosing issues and formulating guiding policies with coherent actions. Meritocracy and an ability to innovatively emulate the West are two factors that have stood out. Add to these Beijing’s results-oriented focus – supported by an evidence-based approach to policy underpinned by sound performance measurements – and a picture emerges of how China will become the world’s leading economy as soon as 2031. China’s political system has gradually evolved to a point where its resource and capability base are dynamic, pivoting to where they need to be. This runs counter to conventional wisdom as, in theory, a top-down system of China’s magnitude should not be as flexible or efficient as it is. Nonetheless, China’s economic and social development are a testament to these dynamic capabilities. Consequently, China’s economic and social success is inseparable from the effectiveness of its mode of political governance. Some Western political scholars still exhibit a form of denial, not taking China’s complexities into account and denying the chances of its longevity. The Western consensus still appears to be that China adopting democracy is a question of not if, but when. After decades of such predictions, there appears to be no “when” in sight. While Beijing says it does not want to export its mode of political governance, success breeds emulation. Much like the pull towards China in an economic sense, the political class must contend with the attraction of China’s political model. Likewise, Beijing is unlikely to be able to resist the benefits of that attraction – especially any increase in the soft power it sorely lacks. While completely transplanting China’s system elsewhere will never work, hybrid forms can lead to economic success, especially when supported by Chinese direct investment. The main beneficiaries of the Chinese model are developing countries in Asia, Latin America and particularly Africa, where Chinese influence is on the rise. Ethiopia is one example of fusing elements of neoliberalism with Chinese-style political governance, making it one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Nonetheless, countries looking to adopt the Chinese model will face significant challenges, with legacy issues, implementation and maintenance among the factors to consider. One should not underestimate the West’s ability to counter China’s influence, either, with superior diplomatic, economic and other initiatives. Moving forward, countries looking to become prosperous will inevitably consider the Chinese model. Though it is still taking shape, it is only natural that China will entertain and exploit these overtures. With its store of knowledge from more than 40 years of successful political, economic and social development, China’s expertise will ultimately be exported and thus increase Beijing’s influence. While the Chinese model lacks full universality, many countries will seek a hybrid design in the coming years. It is uncertain how China will approach this development, but it is a case of when, not if, as the benefits to Beijing’s strategic power will be immense. S. George Marano holds a PhD from the School of Management at RMIT University, Australia, and has an MBA and Master of Commerce from RMIT University