Stuart Gietel-Basten

Opinion | If China wants more babies, it needs a better understanding of young people

Rather than castigating young people, a more productive approach involves acknowledging they may well have different aspirations from previous generations

Until China and others in the region wake up to this new social reality, they will have to live with very low fertility and all its consequences

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Stuart Gietel-Basten

Published: 3:30am, 4 Jun 2021Updated: 4:05am, 4 Jun 2021

The release of China’s census in early May once again shone a clear light on the country’s demographic travails. While still growing overall, the population was shown to be ageing rapidly, and prospects for population stagnation and decline in the near future have become greater.

Of course, the root causes of such macro changes in population growth and structure are simple: people are living longer, and women are having fewer children. Obviously, we don’t want to see mortality increasing, so attention quickly turns to adapting the fertility rate.

The census itself revealed that China in 2020 had a total fertility rate of just 1.3 – lower than that of Japan. Covid-19 and its fallout undoubtedly pushed fertility lower last year, and the method of deriving fertility rates from census data often generates an undercount. Despite these factors, there is no point denying that fertility in China is very low.

Under these circumstances of concern about the low fertility rate, the immediate response of many was to ask, why are there any restrictions at all?

On May 31, China announced that all couples would be entitled to have three children. This is the latest readjustment of birth control policies which date back to the 1970s and 1980s.

At first glance, this may look like a knee-jerk reaction to the census. However, in November, the government indicated it would shift towards optimising its fertility policy and respond to population ageing as part of the 14th five-year plan, for 2021 to 2025.

Opinion | If China wants more babies, it needs a better understanding of young people

Rather than castigating young people, a more productive approach involves acknowledging they may well have different aspirations from previous generations Until China and others in the region wake up to this new social reality, they will have to live with very low fertility and all its consequences