Why China’s three-child policy is unlikely to improve the gloomy long-term economic outlook
- The latest census has revealed a significant slowdown in the population growth rate, fertility rate and number of migrant workers
- Given that productivity growth has also been declining, the prospects for the economy remain grim


10:42
China 2020 census records slowest population growth in decades
However, it remains open to question whether the three-child policy will be effective. After the introduction of the two-child policy, the number of births did increase, slightly, in 2016 and 2017. However, this was only a temporary phenomenon, as the number later fell significantly.
In 2020, only 12 million babies were born in China, the lowest total in six decades. Given the minuscule effect of the initial relaxation of birth controls, it questionable whether the complete lifting of restrictions, which is now under discussion, can alter the unfavourable trend in the birth rate in the long term.
China’s total fertility rate – the average number of children born to women during their reproductive years – has dropped to the 1.3-1.7 range in the past decade, far below the 2.1 level that would be needed to sustain the current population level in the medium to long term.