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Afghanistan
OpinionComment
Abdul Basit
Abdul Basit

Opinion | US’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan sends shudders through South Asia

  • The decision for an unconditional withdrawal is creating a triumphant jihadist narrative, enthusing groups across South Asia with deep al-Qaeda ties
  • With Isis degraded and the Taliban weakened, the post-US Afghan power vacuum is ripe for exploitation by opportunistic militant groups

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A US soldier arrives at the scene where a suicide car bomber attacked a Nato convoy in Kabul, Afghanistan, on May 16, 2013. Photo: AP
Abdul Basit
The US announcement to unconditionally withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by September marks the end of the so-called global “war on terror”. But war in Afghanistan has not ended – only the US political will to fight it. War in Afghanistan will simply enter a new, bloody phase following the US exit, with far-reaching implications for South Asia.
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The manner in which the United States is leaving will hasten Afghanistan’s impending civil war. Major consequences include the Taliban’s tactical ascendance, re-emergence of warlordism, rekindling of ethnic and tribal fissures, reconstitution of the terrorist threat and the reversal of democratic and humanitarian progress post-September 11.

Indubitably, the US staying on in Afghanistan would have been a recipe for more war and the outcome would have been somewhat similar, irrespective of when America left. But the decision for an unconditional withdrawal is creating a triumphant jihadist narrative. Triumphalism that another great power has been defeated in Afghanistan will enthuse a plethora of jihadist groups in South Asia.

Though the terrorist threat to the US homeland and the West does not emanate from Afghanistan – most of it is home-grown or has moved to the Middle East and Africa – it can still become the hub of transnational terrorism.

In 2012, the epicentre of global jihadism moved from Afghanistan to Iraq and Syria. But with the territorial reversals and military defeat of Islamic State in these two countries and the Taliban’s ascendance, Afghanistan can once again become the fountain of jihadism.

03:48

As US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan nears, Hazara militia fighters prepare for the worst

As US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan nears, Hazara militia fighters prepare for the worst

Even if the direct terrorist threat to the US and the West does not emerge from Afghanistan, developments there will still shape jihadist narratives, agendas and operational strategies in the Middle East and Africa, and inspire home-grown jihadists.

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