US’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan sends shudders through South Asia

The decision for an unconditional withdrawal is creating a triumphant jihadist narrative, enthusing groups across South Asia with deep al-Qaeda ties

With Isis degraded and the Taliban weakened, the post-US Afghan power vacuum is ripe for exploitation by opportunistic militant groups

3-MIN READ3-MIN

A US soldier arrives at the scene where a suicide car bomber attacked a Nato convoy in Kabul, Afghanistan, on May 16, 2013. Photo: AP

Abdul Basit

Abdul Basit is an associate research fellow at the S.

Published: 3:30am, 29 Apr 2021Updated: 4:30am, 29 Apr 2021

The US announcement to unconditionally withdraw its troops from Afghanistan by September marks the end of the so-called global “war on terror”. But war in Afghanistan has not ended – only the US political will to fight it. War in Afghanistan will simply enter a new, bloody phase following the US exit, with far-reaching implications for South Asia.

The manner in which the United States is leaving will hasten Afghanistan’s impending civil war. Major consequences include the Taliban’s tactical ascendance, re-emergence of warlordism, rekindling of ethnic and tribal fissures, reconstitution of the terrorist threat and the reversal of democratic and humanitarian progress post-September 11.

Indubitably, the US staying on in Afghanistan would have been a recipe for more war and the outcome would have been somewhat similar, irrespective of when America left. But the decision for an unconditional withdrawal is creating a triumphant jihadist narrative. Triumphalism that another great power has been defeated in Afghanistan will enthuse a plethora of jihadist groups in South Asia.

Though the terrorist threat to the US homeland and the West does not emanate from Afghanistan – most of it is home-grown or has moved to the Middle East and Africa – it can still become the hub of transnational terrorism.