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Macroscope | Coronavirus recovery: vaccine success can help make up for prevention failures
- Economies that have failed to control the coronavirus so far might be able to compensate by running ahead with their rate of vaccinations
- Those who can catch up at this part of the global race against Covid-19 have a good chance of emerging from the pandemic stronger
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More than a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the multi-speed global race to vaccinate populations around the world is now setting the stage for the next challenge of returning to normalcy for economic as well as public health.
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There are four broad groups of economies in terms of performance. Those economies that have failed to control the virus so far might be able to compensate for their poor performance by running ahead with their rate of vaccinations.
The first group, including China, has led the initial stage of containment by a long way. China was able to limit the spread of the virus with stringent border controls and lockdowns of cities that suffered outbreaks. By the second quarter of 2020, economic activities were starting to rebound and China’s recovery was largely complete by the end of the year.
Its success in containing the outbreak also means the local population might lack the urgency to get vaccinated. So far, China has administered almost 115 million doses. It aims to get 40 per cent of the population vaccinated by June, which implies a daily vaccination count of 10 million. As immunity from available vaccines requires two injections, 40 per cent of the population would imply a total of more than 1.1 billion doses. This will require a significant step-up in production and logistics.
The second group are those countries that have suffered significantly in the past 12 months but made considerable progress in vaccinating their populations, such as the United States and Britain. The US has already administered 147 million doses of vaccine, and more than a quarter of its 330 million people have already received at least one dose.
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China pushes mass vaccinations to build herd immunity against Covid-19
China pushes mass vaccinations to build herd immunity against Covid-19
For the UK, more than 45 per cent of the population has already received at least one vaccination dose. Alongside other countries that have also seen a large population receiving the vaccine, evidence suggests inoculation helps to reduce infection and hospitalisation.
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