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Opinion
Amid Covid-19 vaccine death rumours and blood clot fears, is anyone still following the science?
- From avoiding vaccines to halting drives, people and governments who claim to be following the science are jumping to conclusions despite a lack of evidence
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Philip Bowring has been based in Asia for 39 years writing on regional financial and political issues.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc means if x follows y, then y must be the cause of x. This Latin phrase was drilled into me at the age of 15 as one of the world’s most common and dangerous fallacies. But it seems many people never learn, including those who proclaim themselves to, and demand that others, “follow the science”.
It is not, of course, surprising that popular media in search of readers easily stirred into anxiety will headline the fact that a few people in Hong Kong have died after taking the Sinovac vaccine. As a result, vaccination bookings fell. But it is truly shocking when governments in countries with excellent health data and knowledge of both viruses and vaccines fall into the same trap.
Germany is perhaps the most shocking example. The fabled land of vorsprung durch technik, or advance through technology, stopped distributing the AstraZeneca vaccine on the basis of a rumour, unsupported by data, that it can cause blood clots. Don’t wait for the science, just follow the headlines on Twitter or Bild Zeitung.
Other supposedly advanced European countries did the same in the face of zero evidence – notably from Britain which has a very high vaccination rate, from AstraZeneca or from the World Health Organization. Even though EU countries have now said they will resume use, such actions inevitably raise the suspicions of the many who already doubted the wisdom of accepting the vaccine.
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