Opinion | US-China relations: who’s the alpha male? America’s friends and allies are watching closely
- If America wants to repair its regional alliances, it must first show it can deal with Beijing from a position of strength
- Small and medium-sized nations need assurances that they won’t be used merely as a tool to counter China, to be discarded the moment it suits the US to compromise with Beijing
In countering China, the Biden administration must demonstrate that the US can deal with China from a position of strength, so America’s friends feel safe enough to entrust their security to the alliance. Currently, there are deep anxieties about the US’ capability.
The Biden administration is reviewing its foreign policy, and appears unable to simply reuse the “liberal hegemony” card, a tradition of the Democratic Party, due to China‘s formidable rise. Against this backdrop, it is understandable that the Biden administration’s posture in dealing with China is likely to lean towards “defensive realism”, which emphasises alliances. The problem is alliance overreach, which makes America look weak and needy.
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Biden also said he would “work with Beijing” when it is in America’s interest to do so. Again, this is classic defensive realism. Allies will suspect that America’s goal is to seek a balance of power with China and reach a compromise when it suits the US.
They will sense they are being used as Washington’s tool for “offshore balancing” against China, while Washington itself will be free to cooperate with China where doing so benefits America. That will be seen as America’s buck-passing, shifting the responsibility of confronting China to America’s regional allies.
If this materialises under the Biden administration, allies will also seek their own balance of power between Washington and Beijing, instead of giving full, unwavering support to America. Such a tendency will be pronounced among smaller nations and middle powers in Asia because they will worry about Chinese retaliation for siding with America and honouring America’s request to stand up to China.
Washington should take all these factors into consideration when fine-tuning its foreign policy. And it should also be aware of the gap in perceptions in an asymmetric alliance relationship.
