Opinion | Pakistan hopes Joe Biden will maintain Donald Trump’s Afghanistan policy to preserve the Taliban peace process

Name: US, Taliban sign historic peace deal to end war in Afghanistan and withdraw US troops
Uploaded: 2021-01-05T17:30:08.000Z
Duration: 2 min 29 s
Description: US, Taliban sign historic peace deal to end war in Afghanistan and withdraw US troops

Afghanistan is Biden’s most immediate foreign policy challenge, with his range of options risking either the Taliban peace deal or decades of fragile progress

Continuing Trump’s strategy would suit Pakistan as it would leave an ascendant role for the Taliban, a minimised Indian presence and a stable political order

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A delegation of Afghan Taliban meets Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan (right) in Islamabad on December 18. Khan has urged US President-elect Joe Biden to follow his predecessor’s example in handling Afghanistan. Photo: EPA-EFE

Abdul Basit

Published: 1:30am, 6 Jan 2021Updated: 2:32am, 6 Jan 2021

With US President-elect Joe Biden due to be sworn in on January 20, Pakistani policymakers are watching the emerging contours of his Afghanistan policy which will shape the trajectory of US-Pakistan relations. A bipartisan consensus exists in Washington that there is no military solution to the war in Afghanistan and it should be terminated through a politically negotiated settlement, so a dramatic policy shift under Biden is unlikely.

Going by Biden’s campaign statements and the views of Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin – his nominees for secretary of state and secretary of defence respectively – he might keep a counterterrorism footprint in Afghanistan and revise the withdrawal time frame following a policy review in March. The policy on the ongoing peace process in Qatar is likely to remain the same.

A breakthrough in the intra-Afghan negotiations would augur well for US-Pakistan relations. The United States might restore suspended aid for Pakistan as compensation. However, a breakdown in peace talks and escalation of violence in Afghanistan would negatively affect bilateral ties.

The Kabul-Taliban peace talks have moved at a snail’s pace, marred by delays and disagreements amid rising violence and political uncertainty. The Taliban has not held up its end of the US-Taliban deal signed last February. Despite a commitment to the contrary, the Taliban still has ties to al-Qaeda and is attacking provincial capitals.

Afghanistan is Biden’s most immediate foreign policy challenge, and his options range from bad to worse. If he maintains a counterterrorism footprint in Afghanistan, it would jeopardise the US-Taliban deal. The agreement necessitates, among other things, a full US withdrawal by May 2021 in return for Taliban commitments not to harbour foreign terrorist groups and to enter a power-sharing deal and comprehensive ceasefire with Kabul.

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US, Taliban sign historic peace deal to end war in Afghanistan and withdraw US troops

On the other hand, a unilateral US exit from Afghanistan would undermine the democratic gains of the past two decades and compromise the modest progress on women’s rights and education in Afghanistan. This could result in the return of Taliban rule with far-reaching consequences for regional and global peace.