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Paul Yip

Edward Pinkney

The US presidential election was notable for several reasons, including the unusually mature age of the candidates. Of the seven Democrat primary candidates, four would have been the oldest ever newly elected president, exceeding the record that President Donald Trump took from Ronald Reagan.
Three, including President-elect Joe Biden who is 78, are older than Reagan was after two terms in office.
The US presidency is often described as the most powerful job in the world. For the leading candidates to be at post-retirement age is enough to make one consider what’s going on.
Is there something extraordinary about the levels of endurance that can be maintained nowadays, or is something making it more difficult for younger generations to attain positions of power?


Certainly, medical advancements and healthier living can explain some increases in performance in later years, but perhaps demographic data hints at an intergenerational challenge relevant to the United States, and also Hong Kong.
The US exhibits the hallmarks of an ageing society. Between 2020 and 2040, the number of people aged 85 and older in the US is forecast to more than double, substantially outpacing other age groups.
Hong Kong faces a similar problem, with those aged over 65 expected to make up almost a third of the population by 2041, from less than 20 per cent in 2020.
Declining birth rates are a major concern for any society. While the US fertility rate was at record low in 2018 at 1.7 children per woman, Hong Kong’s is even lower, declining to scarcely over one child per woman in 2018, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
This demographic tilt towards ageing and away from births is a dangerous “low-fertility trap” for Hong Kong to find itself in. If birth rates cannot increase, only the enhancement of productivity and possibly migration can sustain the city’s development and ensure care for the elderly.
Why more women choosing to have fewer kids or none at all
It is important, therefore, to consider what it says about the condition of a society if more people lack the conviction to bring children into the world.
The straightforward explanation for declining fertility rates involves economic opportunities. The fertility rate in the US and Britain peaked immediately before the 2008 economic crisis, while in Hong Kong, it fell to lows in 2003 under the economic gloom of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic.
It is natural to want one’s children to have a better life than oneself, and studies point to the link between financial worries and less desire to have children.


The old like to say that the younger generations have never had it so good. This may be true to the extent that today’s younger generations get to sit at the table with their elders and share in the harvest. Yet the young are also the ones left to pick up the bill later.
The young look set to inherit a continuing trend towards a high cost of living, slowing economy and declining home ownership rates. Newly released figures also show a rise in the poverty rate.
The concentration of wealth by the older generations is also apparent. According to Forbes, half of the 10 wealthiest Americans are older than 60. In Hong Kong, more than half are above retirement age, and four are in their 90s.
To tackle inequality exposed by Covid-19, start with wages
We should certainly not begrudge those that did well during the booming 1970s and 1980s under Hong Kong’s free-market rules. However, upward mobility has declined in recent years.
The generations that have emerged during the stuttering growth and restrictive business environment of the 21st century face an uphill struggle to compete. Without intervention, the economic climate will almost certainly grow tougher as a result of Covid-19.


To level the playing field, resources and opportunities must be shared. Hong Kong should aspire to be a meritocracy. If it is not, and aspirational young people are left to bring a knife to a gunfight, it will be bad news for everyone as it will hamper innovation and stifle economic output.
Would-be scientists, entrepreneurs and engineers faced with hefty rents may choose the safe project rather than the one that could be most transformative.
The young may dismiss their elders as out of touch, just as some elders have a tendency to dismiss the young as naive. These are natural sentiments. But with the uncertainty brought by the pandemic, surely it is time to set aside stubborn arrogance, and to welcome fresh thinking and the chance to bridge divides.
Pandemic wipes out years of progress on Asian poverty
Consistent with the scientific method, we should be open to and seek evidence that may refute the positions we hold. This means being prepared to listen sincerely to those that may have alternative viewpoints or feel hard done by.
It is not obvious how the US can reconcile its divisions. But the spirit of Hong Kong has always been one of resilience and renewal. As we enter 2021, let us rekindle opportunities for dialogue and generosity between generations. Intergenerational understanding and mutual appreciation are much needed.
Paul Yip is an associate dean (research), and Edward Pinkney is a programme officer, in the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong


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Ageing society

For Hong Kong and the US to escape the low-fertility trap, the old must help the young

Li Ka-shing with his son, Victor Li Tzar-kuoi, at a company dinner in Wan Chai on January 10. Li is one of the four 90-somethings among Hong Kong’s 10 richest people. Photo: Dickson Lee

Coronavirus pandemic has exposed inequality in Singapore and Hong Kong. To tackle it, start with wages

Street cleaners wait in line to receive free face masks in Hong Kong on February 14. Photo: EPA-EFE

Pandemic wipes out years of progress on Asian poverty, from Indonesia to the Philippines and Thailand

Indonesian boys play in a slum area of Jakarta in February. Millions of Indonesians have been left vulnerable to poverty by the pandemic. Photo: EPA

Lasmi Asih and her family. Photo: Handout

In this photo taken on November 24, 2020, a woman attends to her child inside their tricycle, serving as their home, while her husband queues for free packed meals distributed by Catholic religious order Society of the Divine Word (SVD) in Manila. - Charities are struggling to meet the ever-growing demand for food as millions of families go hungry across the country where Covid-19 restrictions have crippled the economy and thrown many out of work. (Photo by Ted ALJIBE / AFP) / TO GO WITH AFP STORY: Philippines Health virus homelessness food, FOCUS by Allison JACKSON

Falling fertility: why more women choose to have fewer children or none at all, while others who want them struggle to conceive

Birth and fertility rates are falling globally, whether through choice or out of necessity. Countries in East Asia have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Photo: AFP

Sarah Fung at her shop in Wong Chuk Hang. 20SEP19 [FEATURES] SCMP / May Tse

This picture taken on June 29, 2016 shows young children eating lunch at an official nursery school in Yokohama. Abe has come under fire for his call for the nation's women to both bear more children to stem a falling population, and to keep working to boost the struggling economy, without providing proper childcare facilities to support this dual demand. / AFP PHOTO / KAZUHIRO NOGI / TO GO WITH AFP STORY: Japan-Woman-Social-Economy; FEATURE by Kyoko HASEGAWA

A mother and her baby with thick clothing seen on the street in Tsim Sha Tsui as cold weather hits Hong Kong. 23NOV16 SCMP / K. Y. Cheng

A demonstrator holds a placard reading "time is running out" during a global youth climate action strike in Barcelona, on September 27, 2019 at the end of a global climate change week. (Photo by Josep LAGO / AFP)

Dr. Ann Tan, Medical Director, Virtus Fertility Centre Singapore.

Opinion

Comment


The concentration of wealth among the older generation must be shared with the young, who need economic opportunities. Dialogue and generosity are needed to bridge the intergenerational divide



The concentration of wealth among the older generation must be shared with the young, who need economic opportunities. Dialogue and generosity are needed to bridge the intergenerational divide.


Hong Kong economy

United States

Poverty

Hong Kong housing

Millionaires and billionaires

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Opinion | For Hong Kong and the US to escape the low-fertility trap, the old must help the young

The concentration of wealth among the older generation must be shared with the young, who need economic opportunities. Dialogue and generosity are needed to bridge the intergenerational divide