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Albert Cheng

The results of the US presidential election likely will be revealed next week. Meanwhile, the election in British Columbia, Canada, ended last Saturday.
Although the official election results will not be announced until all of the 500,000 postal votes are in, the counted votes show that the New Democratic Party (NDP) will gain 55 seats in the provincial Legislative Assembly while the Liberal Party and Green Party won only 29 and three seats, respectively.
The landslide victory is an expected result of the effective response of the NDP minority government to the coronavirus pandemic. British Columbia has so far done one of the best jobs in keeping the virus under control. The province has recorded fewer confirmed cases and deaths than others such as Quebec, Ontario and Alberta.
But its handling of the economy is less reassuring. The NDP has raised taxes and imposed restrictions on economic activities, especially in the real estate sector. The party’s lack of economic vision is surely jeopardising the future of heavily Chinese Canadian-populated British Columbia, especially Vancouver.
The NDP’s political gains are from its success in fighting the pandemic, which will most likely inspire Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party, the ruling minority in the federal government, to call for an early election. Since Trudeau is more popular than the newly elected Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole, he can replicate the NDP’s success and regain majority control of the legislature.

Canada aside, the victory of the NDP has significant political and economic implications on Canadians living in Hong Kong. In the wake of anti-Beijing protests in Hong Kong triggered by a proposed extradition bill, Hong Kong activists have urged the Canadian government to take a tough stance against China.
In response, China’s ambassador to Canada, Cong Peiwu, has warned Canada over providing political asylum to Hong Kong protesters and implied that China would take revenge on the 300,000 Canadians who live in Hong Kong.
Those considering moving back to Canada, however, should take into account the country’s left-leaning policies.
More Hongkongers seeking asylum overseas, with Australia and Canada top picks
On the economic front, the NDP is a socialist party which emphasises protecting local Canadians’ interests. The party favours regulating the market and resists foreign investment in the booming real estate market. However, the economic structure of Vancouver is largely similar to that of Hong Kong – a city of immigrants which is heavily reliant on real estate investments.
Now that Vancouver is governed by the NDP, the foreign buyer’s tax and vacancy tax are likely to remain. The NDP might even raise taxes to offset its enormous welfare expenditure, which will make Vancouver less attractive.
Political anxieties aside, many Hong Kong Canadians are reluctant to leave the city. In this part of the world, they have a high income and good quality of life.


Those in this group who have extra capital are likely to invest in a condo or off-plan property as a backup or holiday housing. Under British Columbia’s current policy, however, not only would they have to pay a vacancy tax, they would also have to bear the risk of volatility in their properties.
This is not the best time to invest in properties in Canada. In comparison, especially for the Hong Kong Canadians who do not live in the country, it would be a safer move to buy in Canadian dollars for fixed deposits. The returns would be much higher than Hong Kong dollar savings.
On the political front, Hong Kong people should abolish any fantasies that the Liberal Party-run federal government will go hard on China.
They should also be mindful not to put much hope in the British Columbia NDP government. As it has won big in the province’s urban areas, including in heavily Chinese-populated Richmond, the NDP will have to please its pro-Beijing voters and not confront China on Hong Kong’s situation.
Hong Kong has gained more international attention than ever. Hong Kong Canadians who live in Hong Kong should pay close attention to events in Canada and keep the country’s political reality in mind, especially after the British Columbia election.
Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator


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Canada

NDP victory a reminder Canada is no utopia for those fleeing Hong Kong

Properties such as this US$9.5 million Vancouver home, owned by Sau Po Wong, are likely to continue to be subject to vacancy taxes after the New Democratic Party won a clear majority in the recent British Columbia election. Photo: Ian Young

B.C. NDP leader John Horgan speaks at the party's provincial election night headquarters following a majority government win in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada October 24, 2020. REUTERS/Jennifer Gauthier

Beijing should ask itself why BN(O) passport holders want to leave Hong Kong, rather than issuing threats

Pedestrians cross over the south side of Westminster Bridge in central London on October 21. The sight of Hongkongers leaving their vibrant, cosmopolitan city en masse for a cold, wet island could be an embarrassing one for Beijing. Photo: AP

graphic for online soaring demand the number of BN(O) passports issued in 2019 jumped to 154218 nearly an eightfold increase from the previous year, official british data showed bn(O) renewals bn(O) issued BN(O) in circulation renunciations 400000 400 300000 300 2000000 200 100000 100 1997 2001 2010 2020 (up to june 30) source: uk government SCMP

Vancouver’s ‘spicy measures’ have worked to lower property prices. Why haven’t Hong Kong’s?

The prices of Hong Kong homes in the secondary market rose 2.9 per cent in March from the previous month, at their fastest monthly pace in about three years. Photo: AFP

Meet the transnationals: They moved to Canada but never really left Hong Kong

Guy Ho in Hong Kong in the early 1970s. He moved to Canada in 1977, back to Hong Kong in 2004, then returned to Canada in 2015. Photo: Handout

Hong Kong immigrants Henry Lam and husband Guy Ho in Vancouver. Photo: Handout

Cherie Wong is the executive director of Alliance Canada Hong Kong, a group that supports the Hong Kong protest movement. She was born in Canada, moved to Hong Kong as a toddler, then returned to Canada in her teens. Photo: Handout

TOPSHOT - Pro Hong Kong supporters hold signs during a rally at the Broadway-City Hall SkyTrain Station in Vancouver, Canada on August 17, 2019. - Ten weeks of demonstrations have plunged Hong Kong, the international finance hub, into crisis, with communist-ruled mainland China taking an increasingly hardline tone. (Photo by Don MacKinnon / AFP)

Professor Leo Shin, pictured in Toronto in 1990. Photo: handout

Professor Leo Shin  is convenor of the Hong Kong Studies Initiative at the University of British Columbia. Photo: UBC

Dr Justin Tse is an assistant professor of humanities at Singapore Management University who has studied transnationalism among Hong Kong Canadians. Photo: Ian Young

A teenage Cherie Wong on a visit to Hong Kong's Ocean Park in 2014.  Photo: Handout

Canada's close ties to Hong Kong

Thousands of Hong Kong-born people move back to Canada, once again reversing a migration that has shaped cities across the Pacific

Reverse migration has helped shape Hong Kong, where there are now an estimated 300,000 Canadians. But thousands are now crossing the Pacific again and heading back to Canada, as double-reverse migrants, or re-returnees. Graphic: SCMP

Jenny Liu, seen in Hong Kong, is now a double-reverse migrant, having moved to Canada as a teenager in the early 1990s, back to Hong Kong in 1998, then back to Canada in 2015. Photo: Jenny Liu / Handout

Hong Kong born people present in Canada 1996-2016

Friends Natalie Tam, 17 (left), and Chinnie Liu, 16, are both children of reverse migrants. Born in Hong Kong, they both moved to Vancouver last year. Photo: Ian Young

University of British Columbia geographer Daniel Hiebert. Photo: Peter Wall Institute / UBC

Protesters against the Hong Kong-China extradition law are reflected in the nameplate of the Chinese consulate general on Granville St, Vancouver, on Sunday. Photo: Ian Young

Opinion

News

Hong Kong

World


The socialist-leaning party’s triumph means its policies of higher taxes, regulation and restrictions on real estate investment are likely to remain in place
Hongkongers should not put much hope in an NDP-run British Columbia or a Liberal-run federal government to take a hard line against China



The socialist-leaning party’s triumph means its economic policies of higher taxes, regulation and restrictions on real estate investment are likely to remain in place. On the political front, Hongkongers should not put much hope in an NDP-run British Columbia or a Liberal-run federal government to take a hard line against China.


Vancouver

Hong Kong protests

Hong Kong Basic Law

Hong Kong politics

Hong Kong national security law (NSL)

Chinese overseas

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


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