Advertisement
Coronavirus pandemic
OpinionComment
Richard Maude
Richard Maude

Opinion | Coronavirus recovery: Southeast Asia faces long, hard road back from pandemic

  • Containing the pandemic and rekindling the economy are the most pressing priorities as Covid-19 continues to roil countries in the region
  • There are also opportunities to benefit from supply chains moving away from China and learn from success stories like Singapore and Vietnam

Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
0
Illustration: Craig Stephens
Richard Maude
In Southeast Asia, as in the rest of the world, the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic has been difficult and costly. Recovery for much of the region will be long and arduous.

Southeast Asia’s fate is not entirely in its own hands, either. The pace and depth of the region’s recovery will depend on the global path of the pandemic, the success of vaccine development and the rebound of global demand for the goods and services Southeast Asia produces.

For all this challenge, though, it is clear Southeast Asia will be neither fatalistic nor passive in responding to the crisis in the region. Southeast Asian countries are planning for recovery and looking for opportunity in adversity, even as they fight the pandemic. Their diversity means recovery strategies will necessarily be tailed to individual country circumstances, but five factors are emerging as high priorities.

First and most obviously, the pandemic must be contained. This has been achieved in much of the region but not, notably, in Indonesia and the Philippines. Southeast Asian countries must find effective strategies to limit further outbreaks while they gradually open and normalise their economies – the region cannot afford further widespread lockdowns.
The World Bank calls this approach “smart containment”. Recent Covid-19 flare-ups in Vietnam, Malaysia and Myanmar show how difficult this is to sustain, as do the second waves now engulfing some European countries. The keys are likely to lie in robust real-time monitoring, sophisticated testing and tracing capabilities, localised lockdowns and ongoing social distancing discipline.

02:05

Indonesia surpasses Philippines for Southeast Asia’s largest Covid-19 case numbers and death toll

Indonesia surpasses Philippines for Southeast Asia’s largest Covid-19 case numbers and death toll

Some Southeast Asian countries will need sustained international help to develop and deploy these capabilities. Without this, some parts of the region could find themselves stuck in the worst of all worlds, able neither to fully contain the pandemic nor to fully open their economies.

Advertisement