Why China’s dreams of global leadership are fading fast

China projects a narrative of being a benevolent and empathetic global leader but, domestically, the narratives coalesce more around nationalist assertions of China as a growing international power

Reconciling this ‘two-level game’ at the heart of its foreign policy is vital

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Nicholas Ross Smith

Nicholas Ross Smith is an adjunct fellow at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Published: 1:30am, 12 Oct 2020Updated: 1:45am, 12 Oct 2020

Many countries – mostly Western – have overwhelmingly “unfavourable views” of China, according to a Pew Research Centre study released this month. Of the 14 countries surveyed, the percentage of respondents who have “no confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs” ranged from 70 per cent in the Netherlands to 84 per cent in Japan. This represents a significant jump from the previous year, where the percentage hovered in the 50-60 range for most countries.

The Pew data is corroborated by another recent study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations, which found that 48 per cent of EU citizens surveyed have a worse view of China since Covid-19. Studies by Gallup, YouGov, and the Institute for Global Change all paint a similar picture: global perceptions of China are increasingly negative.

It is no secret that under Xi’s leadership, China covets a global leadership role. Famously, at the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, Xi proclaimed that China would “open our arms to the people of other countries and welcome them aboard the express train of China’s development.” Given that the US under President Donald Trump has apparently abandoned its international role, China’s global leadership aspirations are certainly timely.

Beyond global leadership, China has a more ambitious goal of reshaping the international order. It is clear that Beijing sees the status quo as privileging the US and has, along with Russia, pushed for an international order that is “just and fair”.