Opinion | Neutrality in US-China rivalry not an option for Suga and Japan

Given that Japan’s relationships with the United States and China are of a different nature, Suga’s early priority is to maintain a good relationship with Donald Trump

While he would be willing to promote closer ties with China, especially economic cooperation, issues such as Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and islands in the East China Sea remain important

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Published: 1:00am, 5 Oct 2020Updated: 6:32pm, 12 Nov 2020

The most salient part of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s administration will be continuing the legacies of his predecessor Shinzo Abe. It is widely expected that Suga, who was the reliable right-hand man of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, will try to complete Abe’s work on structural reforms and raising the country’s international influence.

One of Abe’s contributions to Japan and the region was building a good personal relationship with US President Donald Trump while improving the political relationship, economic ties and people-to-people exchanges with China. In this new era of US-China strategic rivalry, the most critical diplomatic challenge for Japan continues to be how to manage its relationship with the two major powers.

Suga has already launched his diplomatic agenda. He has made phone calls to Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, reassuring the former of the importance of the security alliance and the latter of the necessity of stabilising their relationship as neighbours.

One bit of good news is Suga has popular support, which is indispensable for implementing consistent diplomacy. According to an Asahi survey conducted on September 16 and 17, Suga’s new cabinet had an approval rating of 65 per cent, even higher than the 59 per cent enjoyed by Abe’s cabinet when he started his second stint as prime minister in December 2012.

Japan’s relationships with the United States and China are of a different nature. It is unrealistic for Japan to be neutral between the two major powers while tackling geopolitical risks in the Asia-Pacific.

Suga’s early priority is to maintain a good relationship with Trump. In the last few years, the US-Japan alliance has depended on a good rapport between Trump and Abe. One uncertainty now is over what will happen to the alliance and the region if Suga cannot maintain a positive relationship with Trump should he win November’s election.

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